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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
As Bitcoin (BTC) recovered $60,000 again in the first trading session of July after a bearish June, market attention shifted to the sustainability of the short-term rebound. With $100 million worth of short positions liquidated in four hours, spot buying pressure and expectations of eased US regulations simultaneously emerged, bringing a sense of tension back to the cryptocurrency market.
On July 2 (local time), the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Altcoin Daily stated in its uploaded video that Bitcoin closed June with its lowest monthly candle since September 2024. However, as Bitcoin climbed above $60,000 on the first day of July, approximately $100 million worth of short positions were liquidated in four hours, and the video did not view this movement as merely a short squeeze. Altcoin Daily commented, “The initial rise started with short liquidations, but spot demand is also supporting the price movement,” adding, “As long as spot demand remains, the momentum can continue.”
Changes in the US regulatory environment were also a key rebound factor presented in the video. Paul Atkins, a commissioner of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), stated, “The President has ordered us to make the US the world’s cryptocurrency capital, and we are doing that.” He explained that while regulators previously viewed digital assets themselves as a problem, the direction is now shifting towards bringing innovative companies that have left overseas back into the US legal framework. Hester Peirce, another SEC Commissioner, also expressed optimism regarding the US cryptocurrency market structure bill, saying, “I am still optimistic that it will be processed this summer,” and “Both the House and the Senate have spent a lot of time on it, and work is still ongoing.”
Chart trends are still too early to indicate a complete bullish reversal. The video pointed out that Bitcoin remains below key moving averages, indicating that the short-term structure is still bearish. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to historical lows, and bullish divergence has appeared, increasing the possibility of an oversold rebound. The technical turning points are clear. If $58,000 breaks, $55,000 is the next support level, and a recovery to $62,500 is needed for a short-term bullish reversal. Subsequently, reclaiming the 200-day moving average at $62,400 and the $64,000 resistance level were presented as gateways for further upside.
There were also claims that cycle indicators point to the possibility of the final phase of a bear market. The video explained that the cost basis for long-term holders is rising from around $49,000, while the cost basis for short-term holders is falling from around $69,000. At the current pace, these two cost bases could meet in about 14 weeks, an interpretation that such a structure has appeared at the tail end of past Bitcoin bear markets. Altcoin Daily said of this period, “The next approximately 14 weeks could be very similar to the same point in past cycles.”
Political and macroeconomic variables are simultaneously fueling market expectations and controversy. The video analyzed former US President Donald Trump's financial disclosure data, claiming that Trump earned $1.1 billion from cryptocurrencies. Specific items presented were $600 million from Trump memecoins, $200 million from World Liberty Finance token sales, approximately $200 million from stablecoin stake sales, $65 million from a partial sale of World Liberty Finance, $6 million from Melania NFT sales, and $1.2 million from Ethereum staking. The video also reported that Trump holds over $100 million in Bitcoin and $55 million worth of Ethereum (ETH). Regarding statements from Federal Reserve officials, it was assessed that while a July interest rate cut is unlikely, optimism about the US economy and AI productivity could support risk asset sentiment.
[Key Article Summary]
-Altcoin Daily analyzed that Bitcoin increased its rebound potential in early July, following a bearish close in June, based on $100 million in short liquidations and spot demand.
-Statements from Paul Atkins and Hester Peirce were presented as signals that the US regulatory environment is becoming more favorable to cryptocurrencies.
-Technically, $58,000 and $55,000 are the lower defense lines, and the recovery of $62,500 and $64,000 is a key criterion for a trend reversal.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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