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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin (BTC) has approached its long-term algorithmic support line. However, Fidelity Investments pointed out that "a reversal catalyst is not yet visible," identifying the defense of the $60,000 level as a key test.
According to crypto media outlet U.Today on July 3 (local time), Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, diagnosed that speculative short-term funds are shifting from alternative stores of value to high-growth tech stocks. He noted that while Bitcoin is close to its long-term floor, the current macroeconomic environment lacks bullish catalysts to drive a trend reversal.
Timmer stated, “The same logic applies to Bitcoin. Bitcoin is approaching its power law support line. However, a catalyst for a reversal is not yet visible.” U.Today explained that Bitcoin's power law model is a logarithmic chart that divides long-term price movements into an upper resistance line, a central trend line, and a historical support baseline.
Currently, $60,000 is considered a psychological and technical turning point in the market. The power law support line is currently at $58,237. This baseline has served as a long-term structural floor for Bitcoin's price.
Past cases also underscore the significance of this test. In 2015, Bitcoin recorded $230 near the model support line of $252. In 2018, it fell to $3,204 against the model support line of $2,521. In 2022, it formed a bottom at $16,366 near the model support line of $15,006.
The problem is how strong a premium Bitcoin can regain above its structural floor. U.Today reported that in past bull markets, Bitcoin formed a high premium relative to its structural floor, but this premium has now been exhausted. The growth in global money supply has also slowed, and the speculative premium that pushed Bitcoin above $120,000 has disappeared.
Timmer maintained a cautious stance on immediately declaring a bottom, despite the $58,237 power law support line having historically acted as a long-term floor from an institutional investor perspective. U.Today stated that Bitcoin could stagnate around this support line for an extended period until an actual reversal emerges amidst the challenging macroeconomic environment.
[Article Key Summary]
-Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity Investments diagnosed that while Bitcoin is approaching its long-term power law support line, it lacks a reversal catalyst.
-Bitcoin's key psychological and technical turning point is $60,000, and the power law support line is currently at $58,237.
-U.Today reported that the slowdown in global money supply growth and the exhaustion of speculative premium are acting as burdens preventing Bitcoin's immediate rebound.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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