Monopolizing 93% of Fund Inflows…BlackRock Swallowed the Bitcoin ETF Market!

▲ BlackRock Bitcoin/ChatGPT generated image ©

Despite an inflow of $763.6 million, Bitcoin (BTC) only rose by $1,000, and the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. ultimately chose liquidation. With 79.5% of fund inflows concentrated in BlackRock's IBIT alone, it is being evaluated that market restructuring has begun in earnest rather than a recovery in institutional demand.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on August 7 (local time), U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for four consecutive trading days from August 3 to 6. The daily net inflows were $170.1 million, $211.49 million, $244.4 million, and $137.6 million, respectively, totaling $763.6 million. However, Bitcoin only rose from the early $64,000s at the beginning of August to approximately $65,008 on the 7th. Despite over $700 million in regulated demand flowing in, the price increase was only about $1,000.

IBIT accounted for $479 million out of the $626 million in net inflows during the first three trading days, and on August 6, it attracted $128.3 million, approximately 93% of the total $137.6 million. The cumulative inflow over four trading days was $606.88 million, representing 79.5% of the total. IBIT's net assets amount to $47.08 billion, accounting for 60.7% of the entire U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market's $77.6 billion. Its cumulative net inflow is also $60.5 billion, exceeding the $51.5 billion for all 12 products combined, indicating that other products have been in a net outflow state since their launch.

Amid deepening market concentration, Hashdex decided to liquidate DEFI after August 17. This marks the first instance of a spot ETF directly holding Bitcoin closing down in the U.S. DEFI, with net assets of only $14.7 million, plans to sell its remaining approximately 225 BTC and distribute cash to investors around August 28. The asset size difference between IBIT and DEFI is approximately 3,203 times, revealing the structural limitations of small ETFs that could not withstand low assets under management, trading liquidity, and the burden of fixed operating costs.

The media pointed to selling by long-term holders and miners, as well as basis trading, as reasons why prices did not move significantly despite large-scale ETF purchases. Recently, approximately 210,000 BTC held by long-term holders moved, and one large mining company sold 2,213 BTC at an average of $73,078 in Q2, then provided 18,750 BTC as loan collateral. Basis trading, which involves buying ETFs and simultaneously selling futures to profit from price differences, also creates spot ETF net inflows but is not a direct bet on Bitcoin price increases. Conversely, wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC accumulated over 20,000 BTC since July 29.

Technically, the key is whether the $66,800 neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is breached. If this price is surpassed with accompanying trading volume, it could rise to $69,000 and then $76,000, but if the support level of $63,321 breaks, $62,000 and the July low of $58,000 could open up consecutively. The media presented a 45% chance of sideways movement between $62,000 and $67,000, a 30% bullish scenario rising to $76,000, and a 25% bearish scenario retesting $58,000. Ultimately, this fund inflow is closer to price stabilization than a full-fledged bullish signal, and the future direction depends more on whether demand spreads across various ETFs than on the size of the inflow.

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