SpaceX (SPCX) Overcomes Lock-up Shock...Next Target $160

▲ SpaceX (SPCX), Space Industry/AI Generated Image

SpaceX (SpaceX, SPCX) stock price surged 15% compared to the previous day. Although 911.5 million shares were released from lock-up, the feared large-scale insider selling did not materialize, causing investor sentiment to quickly reverse.

According to crypto-specialized media BeInCrypto on August 7 (local time), SpaceX passed its first and largest lock-up release. With 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors becoming available for sale, the float ratio increased from 4.9% to 11.8% of total outstanding shares. The value of shares that could be released into the market amounted to approximately $100 billion, but no large-scale selling occurred.

Ahead of the lock-up release, the stock price had already fallen significantly from its June high of $225.61 to around $105. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens stated, “A significant portion of the recent decline reflected the potential for dilution in advance.” Argus analyst Steven Silver upgraded SpaceX’s investment rating from Hold to Buy and set a target price of $160. The company's first earnings report showed revenue increased by 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion.

Uptrend expectations also prevailed in the options market. Call option open interest was 1,031,939 contracts, more than double the put option open interest of 454,896 contracts. The put-call ratio was 0.44. For options expiring on August 14, 21, and 28, call option open interest was concentrated between $130 and $160, with particularly many contracts accumulated around $150 and $160. As of July 29, shorted shares amounted to approximately 219.3 million, valued at $24.6 billion, representing about 34% of the float.

Technically, it broke above the downtrend channel that had continued since mid-June. The next resistance level is $137.69, followed by the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level at $150.98. Analysis suggests that if it surpasses $165.23, the all-time high of $225.61 could come back into view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to 68.37, just before the overbought zone. Conversely, BeInCrypto analyzed that if the daily candle closes below $126.88, there is a possibility of retesting the $108.09 low.

The burden of additional stock supply remains. If lock-ups are sequentially released until December 8, up to 40% of the total shares could become tradable. Elon Musk's holdings will remain restricted from sale until mid-2027. The future stock price movement depends on how much of the newly released shares are absorbed by new demand.

[Article Summary]

-SpaceX stock price surged 15% compared to the previous day, temporarily overcoming concerns of large-scale selling following the release of 911.5 million shares from lock-up.

-Argus upgraded SpaceX's investment rating to Buy and set a target price of $160, with call option open interest more than doubling put options.

-The next major resistance levels are $137.69 and $150.98, and up to 40% of total shares could become tradable by December 8.

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