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As news of Israel and Lebanon pushing for ceasefire negotiations further eased geopolitical risks from the Middle East, the New York stock market continued its strong performance. Meanwhile, the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) comfortably surpassed $72,000, and major virtual assets like XRP (Ripple) also showed an upward trend, raising expectations for entry into a full-fledged bull market.
According to CoinMarketCap, a cryptocurrency market data aggregator, as of April 10 (local time), Bitcoin is trading at $72,319.89, up 1.05% from 24 hours ago, firmly leading the market's rally. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest by market capitalization, is taking a brief pause, down 0.21% to $2,212.73, but maintains a robust weekly gain of 7.49%. XRP is also up 0.29% to $1.35, while Solana (SOL) is trading down 0.93% at $84.26. Despite mixed movements, major coins are collectively creating an overall bullish atmosphere. The total virtual asset market capitalization has increased by 1.08% to $2.45 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index points to a neutral stage at 47.
The primary reason the virtual asset market is back on an upward trajectory is the recovery of risk asset preference sentiment due to positive developments in the Middle East. Following the agreement between the U.S. and Iran on a two-week temporary ceasefire, even Israel, previously considered the biggest obstacle to peace, abruptly ordered the commencement of negotiations with the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. Amid calls for de-escalation from U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly expressed his willingness to negotiate, strongly stimulating buying sentiment. Buoyed by this sense of relief, the three major stock indices on the New York Stock Exchange – the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite Index – all closed higher overnight. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, often called the fear index, plummeted 7.37% to 19.49, creating a positive macroeconomic environment.
However, with mixed macroeconomic indicators, the spark of market volatility remains alive. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for February, released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, rose 0.4% month-over-month, meeting market expectations, but revealed a hot inflation level exceeding 4% when annualized. Conversely, the final Q4 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by only 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, confirming a significant slowdown in economic growth. Sticky inflation and decelerated growth put significant pressure on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Still, the probability of a 25bp benchmark interest rate cut by the end of December this year has slightly risen to 25%, and strong performance by large tech stocks like Amazon and Meta is largely offsetting market anxieties.
Market experts analyze that the short-term direction of the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, hinges on the actual progress of peace negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. Although a ceasefire is being discussed on the surface, doubts about its sincerity remain, with some within Israel hinting at strong military action. If the Middle East conflict is resolved smoothly and geopolitical risks completely subside, Bitcoin is highly likely to stage a further rally towards an all-time high, supported by robust liquidity. However, if negotiations break down or concerns about supply shocks due to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz resurface, a strong corrective market could ensue. Therefore, a cautious investment strategy, paying close attention to news headlines for the time being, is required.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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