Upbit's Display Board in Red, Whales Close Wallets... A Quiet Market Doubts a 'Real Rally'

▲ Upbit, Bitcoin, XRP ©

As the New York stock market showed strength due to the easing of geopolitical risks from the Middle East, the domestic virtual asset market is also experiencing a relief rally. News of the start of ceasefire negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah stimulated investors' risk asset preference, leading major coins, including the market leader Bitcoin (BTC), to successfully turn upward on Upbit.

As of 6:24 AM on the 10th, according to the market conditions on Upbit, the largest domestic virtual asset exchange, Bitcoin rebounded from yesterday's weakness, trading at 107,025,000 KRW, up 1.10% from the previous day. Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest by market capitalization, recorded 3,277,000 KRW, up 0.46%, while XRP (Ripple) and Solana (SOL) also settled at 2,005 KRW and 125,000 KRW, respectively, rising by 0.25% and 1.63%. Amidst the overall upward trend, the Upbit Composite Index (UBMI) rose by 0.80% to 11,040.03, and the Altcoin Index (UBAI) rose by 0.67% to 2,992.59, signaling a recovery in investor sentiment.

However, despite the price rebound, trading volume, which indicates the market's actual buying enthusiasm, remains significantly contracted. According to CoinGecko data, a global market data aggregator, Upbit's total 24-hour trading volume plummeted by 37.1% compared to the previous day, indicating a strong wait-and-see attitude. Amidst reduced overall trading vitality, a fragmented rotational trading environment continues, with speculative demand concentrated only on a few individual altcoins, such as MVL, which achieved a 100% weekly increase, or Celestia (TIA), which rose by 86.87%.

The decisive background for the coin market's bullish turn today was the Middle East peace mood that boosted the New York stock market overnight. News broke that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had not ceased attacks even after the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, abruptly ordered his cabinet to begin ceasefire negotiations with Lebanon. As the fear of extreme escalation seemingly subsided, strong buying sentiment flowed into the overall risk asset market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the New York Stock Exchange closing up 0.58% and the Nasdaq Composite Index up 0.83%.

However, there are also significant warnings against premature optimism. This is because Prime Minister Netanyahu, in an internal statement to residents of his country's north, still did not back down from his strong will to strike Hezbollah, leaving doubts about the sincerity of the ceasefire. Furthermore, macroeconomic indicators are mixed, complicating the Federal Reserve's calculations: the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for February reconfirmed sticky inflation by rising 0.4% month-over-month, while the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate sharply declined to 0.5%.

Market experts analyze that while Bitcoin has recovered the 107 million KRW level, easing some downward pressure, a rally not supported by trading volume has clear limitations. The future direction of the virtual asset market's major uptrend will largely depend on the actual progress of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon and the outcome of the first US-Iran peace talks scheduled for the 11th. For the time being, as the market could ride a rollercoaster based on geopolitical news headlines, it is necessary to maintain a conservative approach while closely monitoring Upbit's trading volume trends.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*