Bitcoin Breaks 5-Month Decline, Will It Recreate Past 200% Surge?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©CoinReaders

Market attention is now focused on whether Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, which has finally broken the chain of a severe five-month consecutive decline, can replicate the glory of its past 200% surge. However, the heavy macroeconomic environment of sticky inflation and geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East is expected to be a major variable determining the extent of the upward rally.

According to investment specialized media The Motley Fool on April 10 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) dramatically closed up 1.8% on the last day of March, halting its long five-month decline that began in October last year. Bitcoin struggled, falling about 45% from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October 2025, but narrowly avoided the ignominy of a six-month consecutive decline, which has happened only once in its history.

The reason the market is paying attention to this rebound is due to a strong sense of déjà vu from the past. Immediately after the bear market from August 2018 to January 2019, which was the only time in Bitcoin's history it recorded a six-month consecutive decline, Bitcoin demonstrated impressive resilience, surging over 200% from around $3,400 to above $13,000 in a short period from February to June 2019. Although the current decline stopped at five months, expectations are growing that the pattern of an explosive rally following an extreme test of investors' patience could be replicated once again.

However, the current macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop is distinctly different from the tranquil market conditions of 2018. Oil prices continue to soar in the aftermath of the conflict with Iran, and the direction of temporary ceasefire negotiations remains shrouded in uncertainty. Compounding this, inflationary pressures triggered by rising energy prices have further obscured the Federal Reserve's path to interest rate cuts, which would typically be a boon for risk assets like virtual currencies.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience amidst such extreme chaos and uncertainty. It has firmly maintained a price range between $65,000 and $73,000 throughout the Iran conflict, and at one point even demonstrated its strength by outperforming traditional stock market returns despite surging international oil prices.

The media diagnosed that despite short-term market uncertainties, cautious optimism is beneficial for those planning long-term investments of five years or more. It advised that wars and the resulting economic turmoil eventually come to an end, and by consistently accumulating Bitcoin as part of a diversified investment portfolio, excellent returns can be achieved when a future bull market arrives.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*