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▲ Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Middle East War/AI Generated Image
The two-week temporary ceasefire dramatically brokered by the United States and Iran has faltered immediately after its implementation, leading to a rapid deterioration of the situation in the Middle East once again. With Israel's expanded airstrikes on Lebanon and movements to re-block the Strait of Hormuz, the agreement is effectively on the verge of collapse.
According to TheStreet, an economic media outlet, on April 10 (local time), the ceasefire agreement led by U.S. President Donald Trump put forward the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and a cessation of hostilities as key conditions. However, the situation changed rapidly as Israel launched large-scale attacks on Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon. Iran immediately protested, calling it a clear violation of the agreement, and raised the level of pressure by even threatening to re-block the strait. While the White House emphasizes maintaining the open strait and continuing negotiations, local tensions are rapidly escalating.
The core issue is a difference in interpretation regarding the scope of the ceasefire. Iran and mediating nation Pakistan insist that the agreement applies to all fronts, while the U.S. and Israel maintain that the Lebanese front is excluded. In fact, Israel expanded its airstrikes across Lebanon, including Beirut, recording the largest casualties since the war began, with 182 deaths in a single day. The Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly accused the U.S. of effectively condoning Israel's military actions.
The conflict over the Strait of Hormuz has also reignited. Iran has detailed a plan to collect the equivalent of $1 per barrel in Bitcoin (BTC) from oil tankers passing through the strait, asserting its maritime control. President Trump once even mentioned a joint collection plan, but the official stance of the U.S. government leans towards maintaining the Strait of Hormuz open without conditions. Currently, the number of vessels passing through the strait has plummeted to about 10% of normal levels, making global energy supply chain instability a reality.
Financial markets also reacted immediately. International oil prices, which had fallen due to ceasefire expectations, turned upward again as the possibility of re-blockade emerged, and the New York stock market gave back its gains, shifting to a mixed trend. Warnings are also emerging in the market that if the scheduled Islamabad negotiations fail, oil prices could break $110 per barrel, leading to a full-scale global stagflation pressure.
The political burden within the U.S. is also increasing. If the ceasefire led by President Trump falters in a short period, damage to his diplomatic leadership is inevitable. In particular, with NATO allies showing reluctance to provide military support for opening the strait, the possibility of cracks within the Western alliance is also being raised.
The situation in the Middle East is once again at a crossroads of escalation. Global markets are focused on whether the negotiations this weekend will lead to a full-scale war or a de-escalation of tensions.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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