Will Upbit's Bull Market Continue? It Depends on Weekend US-Iran Negotiations

▲ Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana rising on Upbit standard... trading volume also increasing/AI generated image

Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are all rising on Upbit, Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange, signaling a recovery in risk asset preference in the domestic virtual asset market.

According to Upbit as of 7:59 AM KST on the 11th, Bitcoin rose 1.40% to 108,124,000 KRW, and Ethereum rose 2.18% to 3,325,000 KRW. XRP (Ripple) increased by 0.70% to 2,011 KRW, and Solana (SOL) rose by 1.70% to 125,900 KRW. The Upbit Composite Index jumped 1.23% to 11,136.22, the Upbit Altcoin Index rose 1.43% to 3,015.71, and Upbit10 soared 1.53% to 2,755.32. The Bitcoin Group Index increased by 1.40% to 19,465.92, and the Ethereum Group Index rose by 2.17% to 9,347.44, confirming an inflow of buying interest across major assets.

Trading volume also increased significantly. Based on the Upbit KRW market, Bitcoin had the highest 24-hour trading volume at approximately 150.5 billion KRW, followed by Ethereum at approximately 110.5 billion KRW, and XRP at approximately 109.4 billion KRW. CoinGecko data also showed that Upbit's 24-hour trading volume increased by approximately 18.0% at the same time. This indicates that domestic investor sentiment is not just a simple rebound but is spreading, especially among major large-cap assets, as prices are not only rising but also accompanied by increased trading.

The expectation of a peace negotiation between the United States and Iran is primarily cited as the background for the rise. On October 10th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed lower on the New York Stock Exchange, but the Nasdaq closed higher, and on a weekly basis, all major indices recorded strong rebounds. While the market was in a wait-and-see mode, monitoring the results of negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, the sentiment leaning towards the possibility of negotiation progress rather than full-scale risk aversion seems to have been reflected in virtual assets. Additionally, the significant weekly drop in international oil prices, which partially eased concerns about war-induced inflation, also provided a breathing room for the crypto market.

However, there are still many variables to definitively call it a bull market. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, reconfirming persistent inflationary pressure, while the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index sharply dropped to 47.6. With conflicting inflation and sentiment indicators, and increased policy burden on the Federal Reserve (Fed), if the weekend negotiation results fall short of expectations or inflation concerns resurface, the crypto market could see renewed volatility.

Future key points to watch include whether Bitcoin settles in the 108 million KRW range, Ethereum maintains the 3.3 million KRW range, XRP defends the 2,000 KRW mark, and Solana holds the 120,000 KRW range. The overall rise in Upbit indices and increased trading volume are certainly positive, but for this rebound to lead to a trend reversal, the easing of geopolitical risks and a recovery in risk asset preference must continue simultaneously. In the short term, it appears to be a "re-attempt at an uptrend," and in the mid-term, a "rebound market requiring event confirmation."

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*