If the ceasefire breaks, is it over?...JPMorgan "Bitcoin will collapse below $60,000"

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Market tensions are extremely high as Bitcoin (BTC) faces a sharp decline scenario amid the re-escalation of military tensions in the Middle East.

According to virtual asset media outlet Coingape on April 11 (local time), Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director at JPMorgan, warned in a recent report of a sharp decline in the Bitcoin market, assuming that a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran would ultimately collapse. He analyzed that if the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz becomes a reality, investment funds could quickly exit and move to safe-haven assets such as gold.

JPMorgan suggested the possibility of Bitcoin's price falling below $65,000 if the ceasefire fails. A scenario where it could be pushed down to $60,000, and further to $55,000, was also presented if geopolitical uncertainty reaches an extreme. The judgment is that concerns about stagflation triggered by surging energy prices could shrink liquidity in the virtual asset market, increasing downward pressure.

Technical trends are also sending unstable signals. The Relative Strength Index has exited the overbought zone, suggesting a potential downtrend, and the open interest volume is also repeatedly fluctuating sharply amid increased volatility. Signs of expanding selling pressure are also detected as investors begin to rebalance their portfolios depending on the outcome of negotiations.

Bitcoin's status as 'digital gold' is also being tested. In past crisis situations, it emerged as an alternative asset, but recently it has shown a strengthened correlation with risk assets. Panigirtzoglou diagnosed that if rising oil prices and inflationary pressures act simultaneously, Bitcoin would find it difficult to absorb volatility in the short term.

Global asset management firms are also adjusting their Bitcoin holdings in response to changes in the Middle East situation. There is a forecast that if the ceasefire completely collapses, the buying momentum of spot Bitcoin ETFs, a key pillar of institutional capital inflow, could temporarily halt. The market perceives this weekend as a turning point that will determine future direction.

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