Bitcoin, said to reach $100,000, will the gates of hell at $38,000 open first?

▲ Bitcoin plunge/ChatGPT generated image ©

Optimistic forecasts have emerged that the flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin will ultimately reach the dream stage of $100,000, but a chilling warning from an expert suggests that a brutal 70% market crash could hit first, unsettling investors.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on April 11 (local time), TradingShot, an analyst at TradingView, diagnosed that Bitcoin (BTC) is still trapped in a prolonged bear market despite a slight rebound due to recent macroeconomic tailwinds. The current price has been consolidating for nearly two months since its February low, but it has not shown enough strength to threaten previous highs, failing to break out of a massive downtrend.

TradingShot predicted that the current market phase is in the middle of a six-month downward cycle and could extend for another six months. Specifically, by applying the Fibonacci channel model and past patterns from 2018 and 2022, when deep corrections occurred, he predicted that Bitcoin would only find its true bottom after a brutal crash of up to 70% from its peak. He identified $47,000, where the 350-week moving average is located, as the primary bottom, and $38,000, near the 500-week moving average, as the worst-case secondary bottom.

Only after enduring such a painful period of cleansing is Bitcoin expected to slowly regain momentum and kick off a rally towards $100,000. The analyst added that if historical trends and technical signals do not break down, the monumental goal of reaching $100,000 is most likely to be achieved between late 2026 and early 2027.

Despite this long-term bearish outlook, Bitcoin's short-term price is trading around $72,675, showing a weekly rebound of over 8%. Technically, the breakthrough of strong resistance between $73,000 and $73,100 holds the key to the market's short-term fate; if it breaks through strongly, it could surge above $76,000, but otherwise, the support in the $70,000 to $71,000 range will be tested again.

The recent persistent price resilience is a result of massive institutional capital flowing into spot exchange-traded funds and news of a ceasefire between the US and Iran. This week, a huge sum of $471 million, the largest since February, poured into Bitcoin spot funds in a single day, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity products leading the way, demonstrating robust institutional demand.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*