US-Iran, First Ceasefire Talks 'No Deal'...Will Bitcoin Fall to $65,000?

US Vice President Vance leaving Pakistan

With the US-Iran negotiations ending in a 'no deal', a sharp decline scenario where Bitcoin could fall to $65,000 is pressuring the market.

According to Forbes, a US economic media outlet, on April 12 (local time), US Vice President J.D. Vance stated that an agreement was not reached after 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, as Iran did not promise to abandon its nuclear weapons program.

Following this news, Bitcoin continued to trade below $72,000, and the market has already begun to fully reflect a downside scenario. Previously, the market had a 'binary choice' structure of either an $80,000 rise or a $65,000 fall depending on the negotiation outcome, and this breakdown is seen as making the downside possibility a reality.

However, some raise a contrary view. They argue that even if risk aversion sentiment expands across the asset market in the event of an escalation of the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin, with its limited supply, could be re-evaluated as a safe-haven asset alongside gold. Indeed, on-chain data shows that large investors maintained a buying stance instead of selling amidst geopolitical instability.

Conversely, Peter Schiff, a prominent Bitcoin skeptic, warned of a potential Bitcoin collapse, stating that investors would move to gold, not Bitcoin, in a war situation. In particular, if the US expands its military response, a typical risk-off market where stocks and virtual assets decline simultaneously is identified as a downside risk.

Ultimately, the next 72 hours are expected to be a watershed moment. The market direction is likely to be determined by whether the ceasefire holds, additional negotiations continue, or tensions re-escalate. While some large investors' accumulation movements suggest a potential rebound, extreme volatility is unavoidable in the short term, according to analysis.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*