Where is Bitcoin going... '3 Scenarios' After Failed Negotiations

▲ US, Iran, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©

Bitcoin's direction is divided into '3 scenarios after failed negotiations'

According to the YouTube channel of 'The Man Who Reads the Economy' (Kim Kwang-seok TV), which has approximately 481,000 subscribers, on April 12 (local time), with the breakdown of negotiations between the US and Iran, the Bitcoin market has entered a turning point, dividing into three main scenarios depending on the development of geopolitical risks.

The first is a de-escalation scenario. If the conflict is eased through further negotiations or the maintenance of a de facto ceasefire, market uncertainty is likely to be quickly resolved, and risk asset preference sentiment is expected to recover. In this case, Bitcoin (BTC) is analyzed to continue its rebound based on the $70,000 support level, with potential for further rise beyond $75,000 to the $80,000 range.

The second is a prolonged low-intensity tension phase. If negotiations continue but the conflict drags on without a clear agreement, the market will lose direction and enter a wait-and-see mode. Bitcoin is highly likely to continue a compressed market, fluctuating within a box range between $65,000 and $75,000, with only short-term volatility expected to expand depending on news events.

The third is an escalation scenario. If military clashes materialize or sanctions expand, the global financial market could rapidly shift to a risk-off mode. In this case, Bitcoin is analyzed to initially correlate with the stock market, facing downward pressure, and a further decline could accelerate if it breaks the key support level of $65,000.

The video emphasized that the next 48 to 72 hours are a critical period that will determine the market's direction. The possibility of additional negotiations, the level of military tension, and the intensity of the US response were identified as key variables influencing Bitcoin's trend. Ultimately, in a phase where subsequent developments are more important than the negotiation breakdown itself, Bitcoin is increasingly solidifying its role as a key asset reflecting global geopolitical risks.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*