Can Bitcoin reach $1 million? Why now is the starting point

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Market attention is refocusing as an analysis emerges that Bitcoin's $1 million forecast is 'not an exaggeration but a starting point.'

According to investment media FXStreet on April 14 (local time), Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan recently stated in a memo that Bitcoin's (BTC) strength is not merely a price increase but a sign of a changing global financial order. Notably, amidst geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin rose by approximately 12%, while the S&P500 fell by 1% and gold dropped by 10%, showing a clear decoupling from traditional assets.

Hougan drew a line, stating that Bitcoin's strength is difficult to explain with traditional interpretations. Both the argument that war leads to money printing and long-term increases, and the view that geopolitics is irrelevant, are missing the point. He emphasized that Bitcoin is, in fact, simultaneously securing two roles: 'digital gold' and 'global payment asset.'

The first pillar is a store of value. Bitcoin is establishing itself as an asset competing with gold in the global store of value market, estimated to be worth approximately $38 trillion. The second is a borderless, neutral payment asset. Hougan described this as an 'out-of-the-money call option,' explaining that its value rises sharply as the likelihood of adoption increases.

Behind this trend lies the movement towards de-dollarization. After the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the exclusion of Russian banks from SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) by the US and its allies shook confidence in the dollar-based financial system, leading some countries to seek alternatives to avoid political risks. Indeed, Iran recently presented a use case by imposing a $1 per barrel fee on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and mentioning the possibility of receiving it in Bitcoin.

Hougan predicted that if these changes continue, Bitcoin's strategic importance will grow even further. The logic is that the more geopolitical conflicts shake the existing financial system, the higher the likelihood of Bitcoin's adoption as a neutral payment method. He emphasized that if Bitcoin secures both store-of-value and currency functions simultaneously in this process, even the long-term forecast of a $1 million price could become just a 'starting point.'

Meanwhile, Bitcoin recently briefly surpassed $75,000 and is now taking a breather at around $74,700. In the market, analyses emphasizing attention to structural demand changes rather than short-term volatility are gaining traction.

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