Market Expert: "Bitcoin Investor Sentiment Recovery, Now is Rather Dangerous"...Why?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently rebounded, leading to a resurgence of optimism in the market. However, an analysis suggests that, when viewed in light of past price patterns, this is actually a warning sign indicating further declines.

Cryptocurrency specialized media Bitcoinist reported on April 14 (local time) that the phenomenon of Bitcoin investor sentiment turning bullish again might actually be a sign that the bottom is still far off. Virtual asset analyst Max argued that the slowly reviving optimism on social media and trading communities is a warning that investors need to be cautious. Max emphasized, "When investor sentiment slowly starts to turn bullish, it's usually a sign that the bottom has not yet arrived." The analysis suggests that the public becoming optimistic too quickly means that the market's correction phase is not yet over.

This outlook is based on the fact that Bitcoin's price has not yet met the structural conditions that historically confirmed cyclical lows. Max pointed out that the current Bitcoin chart does not show a complete capitulation or a repeated process of selling pressure absorption near the bottom. Furthermore, no weekly market structure changes have been confirmed. Looking at past Bitcoin cycles, a consistent rhythm has been observed, involving a long correction period following extended accumulation and expansion phases.

In past cycles, from the peaks of 2013, 2018, and 2021, Bitcoin required approximately 365 days of decline to reach a definitive bottom. After the 2013 peak, it fell 87% over 427 days; in 2018, it saw an 83% correction over 365 days; and in 2021, it experienced about a 75% correction over 365 days. The current cycle is following a similar structure after its peak in October 2025. According to Max's chart analysis, the bottom of this cycle is expected to form around October 2026.

Max's predicted bottom price is around the $40,000 mark. This analysis contradicts the much faster recovery anticipated by some market participants. Applying the duration and magnitude of past bear markets to the current cycle suggests that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend. Although Bitcoin has successfully achieved a short-term rebound by breaking above the $74,000 level, the possibility of further declines cannot be ruled out from a long-term perspective.

Ultimately, the market's premature optimism is actually exacerbating downward pressure. Experts advise that for Bitcoin to confirm a true bottom, a price correction to the point where investors completely abandon their expectations must precede it. It is time for risk management strategies to prepare for a potentially tedious correction period that could extend until October 2026. Investors are keenly watching whether Bitcoin will retreat to its technical target price of $40,000, thereby completing its historical cycle.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*