XRP, which was supposed to replace SWIFT, will it plummet to $1 by year-end due to lack of positive catalysts?

▲ XRP (XRP) decline/ChatGPT generated image ©

Amidst the absence of clear catalysts for price increases, coupled with sluggish adoption in the cross-border remittance market and institutional investors' cold shoulder, a pessimistic outlook has emerged, suggesting that the price of XRP (Ripple) could plummet to $1 by the end of this year.

According to investment media The Motley Fool on April 16 (local time), Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, significantly lowered his 2026 XRP price forecast from $8 to $2.80, citing macroeconomic headwinds. While this represents a 107% upside from the current price of $1.35, experts predict that XRP, which has already fallen 61% from its peak, will continue its decline for the remainder of the year, eventually settling around the $1 mark.

The biggest problem is that its utility as a bridge currency is not meeting expectations. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse confidently stated that by 2030, Ripple would secure 14% of the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) market share, processing $21 trillion in annual transactions. However, XRP's trading volume has stagnated over the past year, and companies are increasingly preferring stablecoins with stable values as a means of remittance over cryptocurrencies that experience extreme price volatility.

To overcome these limitations, Ripple is making strenuous efforts by adding the stablecoin Ripple USD (RLUSD) to its own payment ecosystem. However, even this has reportedly failed to significantly drive demand for XRP, being overshadowed by existing powerful competitors such as Tether (USDT) and USDC, which have already firmly dominated the market.

The six XRP spot ETFs approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission also failed to be a savior for price increases. Although they generated high expectations as a strong positive catalyst upon launch, the price of XRP has actually fallen by 42% this year. The daily net inflows into these funds are continuously decreasing, and their total assets under management (AUM) are only $1 billion, accounting for just 1.2% of the total market capitalization of $81 billion.

This stands in stark contrast to the leading cryptocurrency, which has absorbed institutional investor demand like a black hole. Bitcoin (BTC) has only fallen by 23% this year, and the AUM of Bitcoin spot ETFs amounts to $95 billion, occupying 6.4% of its $1.4 trillion market capitalization. Ultimately, it is analyzed that XRP, caught between its utility being surpassed by stablecoins and the dismal performance of spot exchange-traded funds, will face strong downward pressure towards $1 without finding a way to rebound.

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