Employment figures are positive...Why is Bitcoin falling?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) decline/AI-generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) showed an immediate downward reaction right after the announcement of US employment figures, reconfirming its sensitivity to macroeconomic variables.

On the 16th (local time), the number of new unemployment claims in the US, as of April 11, was recorded at 207,000. This is a decrease of 11,000 claims compared to the previous week's 218,000, and is also lower than the market's expectation of 213,000 claims.

This indicator is interpreted as a sign that the US labor market remains robust. In a stable employment situation, the need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates decreases, which acts as a burden on risk assets.

Indeed, immediately after the announcement of the indicator, Bitcoin's price showed an immediate downward reaction. The price, which had risen to approximately $75,000 during intraday trading, fell to around $74,600 after the announcement, and then showed a trend of stabilizing again near $74,800.

Such a reaction is directly linked to changes in interest rate policy expectations. If employment figures come out strong, the likelihood of the Fed's monetary easing decreases, and the perception that market liquidity may be restricted spreads. This acts as short-term downward pressure on risk assets in general, including Bitcoin.

Previously, the market had been on an upward trend, reflecting expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2025. However, as interest rate cuts have not materialized this year, the gap between expectations and reality has widened. With employment figures remaining strong, expectations for easing policies are further weakening.

Inflation indicators are also sending mixed signals. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced lower than expected, but the increase from the previous period widened, confirming that inflationary pressure has not been completely resolved. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed a similar trend, increasing policy uncertainty.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*