"Forget the Fear of 2022"...9 Reasons Why Bitcoin's Bottom is $65,000

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Dollar (USD)/ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) is establishing a bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range, supported by a fundamentally different macroeconomic environment than the 2022 bear market and strong institutional demand.

According to crypto media outlet NewsBTC on April 17 (local time), John Haar, Managing Director at Swan Bitcoin, argued that recent bearish market outlooks are mired in the fear of 2022, overlooking the current changed structure. Haar stated that the price range of $65,000 to $70,000, which Bitcoin has maintained for the past two months, is likely to be the bottom of this cycle. He analyzed that, unlike the past when inflation shocks and rapid monetary tightening crashed the market, the regulatory and institutional environment is now completely different.

Changes in the macroeconomic environment were cited as the biggest differentiator. Haar diagnosed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which hit a 40-year high and led to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) tightening, has now stabilized at 2.5% to 3%. The end of the fastest interest rate hike cycle in history and the entry into a phase where interest rates are stable or declining also create a favorable environment for Bitcoin. The US government's massive fiscal deficit spending continues to supply liquidity to the market, maintaining a level of 5% to 6% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In terms of market structure, the risk of chain bankruptcies like in 2022 has significantly decreased. The chain of collapses that destroyed trust, starting with the Terra and Luna crisis, followed by Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX, has been broken. Haar assessed that while some institutional ups and downs may occur, their scale and impact are negligible compared to the past. As market participants' resilience has strengthened, the market has moved away from a fragile structure where a few bankruptcies threatened the entire ecosystem.

Above all, the overwhelming buying pressure from institutional investors is firmly supporting Bitcoin's price floor. Strategy has further accumulated 108,000 BTC to date in 2026, significantly increasing its holdings. The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs by major asset managers such as BlackRock and Morgan Stanley, along with aggressive marketing, is also a significant change. Mainstream financial adoption has accelerated, with Vanguard allowing Bitcoin spot ETF trading and even the Harvard Endowment holding Bitcoin.

Temporary price fluctuations may occur in the event of external shocks such as war or disruptions in energy supply chains. However, Haar emphasized that, unlike the past dominated by forced liquidations and institutional absence, the market is now led by institutions with abundant liquidity and capital strength. Even if Bitcoin temporarily breaks technical support levels, strong institutional demand has the power to quickly recover the price. The Bitcoin market is moving beyond a speculative phase and entering a mature asset class.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*