Ethereum Supply Disappears…Is a Breakout Above $2,400 Imminent?

▲ Ethereum (ETH) ©Godasol

As Ethereum hesitates before breaking above $2,400, a 'hidden variable' – a decrease in exchange supply – is changing the market structure.

According to cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on April 17 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) is attempting to rise, facing resistance in the $2,300-$2,400 range. However, on the supply side, a completely different environment from the past is forming. In particular, Binance, one of the world's largest exchanges, has seen its ETH holdings decrease to approximately 3.31 million ETH, reaching their lowest level since 2021.

This figure is interpreted not just as a simple decrease but as a structural change. Binance's ETH holdings have continuously decreased from approximately 7.7 million ETH in the past to the current level, a reduction of about 57%. This indicates that assets are moving to cold wallets, DeFi, and staking, rather than being moved for short-term selling purposes, thereby reducing the actual amount immediately available for sale in the market. In other words, a structure has been created where the supply to absorb selling pressure has significantly thinned out.

Of particular note is the discrepancy between price and supply. Exchange holdings are at the same level as when ETH was priced at approximately $590 in 2021, but the current price is around $2,400, an increase of about four times. The price has risen significantly, but exchange supply has decreased, which is interpreted as a sign that investors are refraining from selling even at high prices and opting for long-term holding.

From an on-chain perspective, this is a strong expression of confidence. Withdrawing assets from an exchange is interpreted not just as a transfer for storage, but as a decision not to sell immediately. The media analyzed that this trend is a representative signal demonstrating the conviction of long-term investors. Ultimately, it explains that a 'supply compression structure' is forming, where there will be insufficient selling volume to meet new demand if it enters the market.

Technically, the direction has not yet been confirmed. Ethereum has been on a downtrend since its 2025 peak of approximately $4,800, then formed a bottom in the $1,500-$1,700 range before rebounding. It is currently moving in the $2,300-$2,400 resistance zone, a critical level that overlaps with the 100-week moving average. The 200-week moving average is acting as long-term support near $2,000.

Ultimately, the key is whether it breaks above $2,400. If it breaks above this zone, there is a greater possibility of transitioning into a full-fledged uptrend, but if it is blocked by resistance again, a sideways trading range may continue. The media assessed that the current Ethereum market is in a 'compression zone just before a directional change,' and if demand flows in, a faster-than-expected rise could unfold.

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