US-Iran Peace Deal Imminent, Will Bitcoin Really Break $80,000?

▲ Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP show strength amid expectations of US-Iran peace deal/AI generated image ©

Amid expectations of a peace deal between the United States and Iran, which has eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin (BTC), the market leader, has seen a surge in pent-up buying pressure, quickly breaking through solid sell walls and setting its sights on the $80,000 mark.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on April 17 (local time), after a sharp drop in early February, Bitcoin's price repeatedly faced resistance around $76,150, but has recently surged 6.95% over the past 7 days, trading at around $77,380. This trend, which has seen a rise of over $5,028 this week alone, is interpreted as a strong signal of a trend reversal towards $80,000 in the near future.

Dramatic changes in the derivatives market are also fueling the rally. According to CoinGlass data, out of a total of $326 million in forced liquidations over the past 24 hours, short sellers accounted for a staggering $306 million, increasing the likelihood of a massive short squeeze (buying pressure generated to close or cover short positions). Furthermore, CryptoQuant's UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) age band indicator shows that Bitcoin has recently recovered the realized price of long-term investors (18 months to 2 years) at $62,000, and has easily surpassed the average price of short-term investors (1 to 3 months) at $75,620.

The key driver behind this rally, which saw Bitcoin break $77,000 for the first time in over two months, is the de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz has been fully opened for commercial navigation, and Iran has agreed not to close the strait again. According to the three-page peace plan, the US will release $20 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and in return, Iran will abandon its uranium enrichment program, with the exception of research reactors.

This resolution of geopolitical risks originating from the Middle East has redirected risk-asset investors back to the virtual asset market, which had previously lagged behind the rise in major stock indices. However, the media warns that even amid positive macroeconomic trends, there is still a risk that the price could retreat below $76,000 and fall into a trap if traders switch to a "sell the news" strategy.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*