MACD Golden Cross Emerges... Will Ethereum Reach $3,400?

▲ Ethereum (ETH) ©

Ethereum has broken through $2,400, absorbing both the easing of geopolitical risks and the inflow of institutional funds. This, coupled with signals of a short-term bottom formation, is raising expectations for a trend reversal to an upward trajectory.

According to investment specialized media FXStreet on April 18 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) rose to $2,420 after Iran announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, recovering the $2,400 level. This reflects the progress in truce negotiations between the US and Iran and expectations of easing tensions, aligning with the recent trend of renewed risk asset preference across the market.

ETF fund flows are also positive. According to SoSoValue data, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling $298.4 million. While the scale itself is not large compared to a strong bull market, it is interpreted as a signal of the gradual return of institutional investors. The current price is above the on-chain average purchase price of $2,308, raising the possibility that this range could turn into a support level.

Technical indicators also suggest the possibility of a bottom formation. On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a golden cross, a signal that also marked price bottoms in November 2024 and May 2025. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in a bullish zone around 65, and the Stochastic indicator has entered the overbought area, indicating a continued buyer-dominated trend despite short-term overheating concerns.

Mixed signals have emerged in the derivatives market. Ethereum's open interest increased to 14.67 million ETH, indicating an expansion of leveraged capital inflow, but funding rates declined, simultaneously capturing a move to expand short positions. In the last 24 hours, approximately $163.2 million worth of liquidations occurred, with $140.9 million attributed to short position liquidations, suggesting that a short squeeze (buying pressure occurring to close or cover short selling positions) partly contributed to the upward movement.

The price structure has also improved. Ethereum broke through its 100-day exponential moving average of $2,378 and the resistance level of $2,388, converting this zone into a support level. In case of a decline, the $2,234 and $2,199 range was presented as the next support level. For an ascent, $2,746 is considered the first resistance, and then whether it breaks through $3,411 is identified as a key turning point for the mid-term trend.

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