Will $1.5 Billion Worth of XRP Be Unlocked, Flooding the Market with a Supply Bomb?

▲ Ripple (XRP) ©Go Da-sol

An astronomical amount of XRP (Ripple) totaling $1.5 billion will be unlocked in two weeks. While market concerns about a massive supply bomb are growing, analysis suggests that the actual price impact will be limited, drawing the attention of investors.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on April 18 (local time), Ripple is set to unlock 1 billion XRP from its escrow contract on May 1. This is part of a monthly program established in 2017 to deposit 55 billion XRP into an encrypted escrow account and release 1 billion each month to the market, aiming to enhance supply transparency and predictability. Designed to prevent sudden market shocks, this mechanism is expected to continue until 2027, as the escrow balance gradually decreases.

Considering the current XRP price of $1.47, the nominal value of the unlocked supply amounts to approximately $1.47 billion. While this substantial volume raises concerns about oversupply, historical patterns show that most of the unlocked supply is not immediately circulated. The issuer typically re-locks 60% to 80% of the released tokens into new escrow contracts.

Indeed, approximately 700 million XRP were re-deposited into escrow in March and April 2026. Only the remaining 200 million to 300 million units were used for operational purposes such as building partnerships, providing liquidity, and ecosystem development. This re-locking practice serves to curb the net increase in circulating supply, acting as a buffer to prevent monthly recurring large-scale unlocks from leading to immediate market shocks.

Ahead of the large-scale unlock, the price is showing a short-term recovery. XRP has risen by 2.5% in the last 24 hours and about 10% over the week, trading around $1.47. It is currently above its 50-day simple moving average of $1.38, which indicates short-term trends, suggesting it is overcoming recent weakness, building new support, and gaining upward momentum.

However, from a macroeconomic perspective, it is still under downward pressure. It is significantly below its 200-day simple moving average of $1.91, which represents long-term trends, indicating that a full transition to a bull market has not yet occurred. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recorded at 62.36, suggesting stable buying interest without entering an overbought state, which bodes well for a gradual price movement in the future.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*