Bitcoin, the real rebound starts in Q4 this year..."This is not a real rally"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Wall Street/ChatGPT Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently shown a rebound. However, an analysis of 13 years of historical data has led to a pessimistic forecast that the true price bottom will only form in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Crypto media outlet NewsBTC reported on April 17 (local time), citing market data from analyst Xremin, that Bitcoin's price correction is still in its early stages when compared to past cycles. Xremin emphasized that time, the duration of the correction, is the most crucial indicator for determining a bottom, more so than the depth of the price drop. He pointed out, "Over the past 13 years, every Bitcoin bear market has required at least more than one year to hit its bottom."

Examining the duration of past bear markets further clarifies the importance of time-based corrections. The 2017 bear market took 363 days to form a bottom, and the correction after the 2021 peak lasted 376 days. Notably, the 2024 bear market took a remarkable 426 days to confirm its bottom. The analysis suggests that all bear cycles consistently underwent a painful verification process lasting over a year.

The current bear cycle began in October 2025 when Bitcoin peaked, surpassing $126,000. So far, it has undergone a correction period of approximately 190 days, which is only about half of the average past correction period. Bitcoin's price has fallen by about 43% from its all-time high, but from a temporal perspective, it is still in the middle of the bear cycle.

The market also harbors expectations that institutional changes, such as Bitcoin spot ETFs and the inclusion of virtual assets in 401(k) retirement plans, will alleviate the depth of the decline. Indeed, Bitcoin spot ETFs hold approximately 6.5% of the total market capitalization, forming a strong support level. However, experts predict that while such institutional demand can defend the price floor, it will not shorten the actual time needed for a psychological bottom to form.

Considering the historically reliable 4-year halving cycle, a solid bottom for Bitcoin is expected to become visible only after the fourth quarter of 2026. The dominant analysis suggests that a minimum amount of time is still needed for market structure and investor sentiment to be completely reshaped. Investors should not get caught up in short-term rebounds but rather cautiously monitor the long-term trend of the bear cycle.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*