Bitcoin Surpasses $75,000 After Iran Ceasefire, $100,000 Possibility?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©

Bitcoin has recovered to $75,000, boosted by the external factor of easing tensions in the Middle East, but the market is focused on whether this trend can lead to $100,000.

According to crypto media outlet Bitcoinist on April 19 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) rose to approximately $76,778 and recorded an intraday high of $78,240, as investor sentiment improved with the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions related to Iran. A 10-day ceasefire linked to the Israel-Lebanon front and Iran's declaration of resuming merchant vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stabilized oil prices, triggering capital inflows across the cryptocurrency market.

Institutional demand also played a significant role in this surge. Major exchanges and market makers, including Binance which bought approximately 29,344 BTC, Coinbase which bought 20,756 BTC, and Kraken which bought 8,600 BTC, collectively absorbed nearly $4.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. Concurrently, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw an inflow of $663.91 million in a single day, bringing the total weekly inflow to $996.38 million.

However, on-chain data still indicates a cool atmosphere. According to Santiment, negative opinions outnumbered positive ones by approximately a 3:2 ratio in social analysis, reflecting persistent skepticism among investors. Some interpret this environment as potentially limiting overheated selling and allowing the rally to continue.

Technically, Bitcoin has broken above the downtrend line formed after its peak of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, but the 50-day exponential moving average is below the 200-day line, making it difficult to consider it a complete bullish reversal. In the short term, the market identifies the $76,000 to $78,000 range as a critical inflection point.

Ultimately, reaching $100,000 is considered insufficient with geopolitical de-escalation alone. While some investors expect the rally to halt in the mid-$80,000 range, there is also a co-existing view that low market expectations could paradoxically lead to a breakthrough above $90,000.

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