Virtual Assets Enter Historical 'Lowest Risk' Zone... "93% Chance of Rise in 1 Year"

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An analysis suggests that the virtual asset market is approaching a bottom in terms of both macroeconomic indicators and technical analysis, lending weight to the possibility of entering an upward cycle.

Dan Gambardello, host of the cryptocurrency YouTube channel Crypto Capital Venture, stated in a video released on April 19 (local time) that the market has entered a preparatory phase ahead of a full-fledged bull rally. He presented the fact that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are in a historically low-risk zone according to risk models as key evidence. The breakout of the Russell 2000, a small-cap stock index, and small financial stocks from their box range is interpreted as a leading indicator for liquidity inflow into the virtual asset market in the future. Furthermore, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) maintaining stability above 50, indicating an economic expansion phase, is also cited as a positive factor.

The commodity market is also showing similar trends to those observed just before past bull markets. The gold-to-copper price ratio is preparing for a rebound, and signals of a bottom formation have been detected in the oil-to-altcoin ratio as well. Copper's relative strength reflects expectations of economic recovery and acts as a factor stimulating preference for risky assets. Past data also repeatedly confirms cases where the virtual asset market shifted to an upward trend after commodity indicators formed a bottom.

The significance of the current phase is also clear in risk score-based analysis. An analysis suggested that when Bitcoin's risk score was around 29, there was a 93% chance of a rise one year later based on historical data. Ethereum also maintains a low-risk score of 33, making it an advantageous entry point from a long-term investment perspective. Objective figures are thus presented as grounds for interpreting the current phase as a buying opportunity.

Signals of slowing downward pressure are also being confirmed in technical indicators. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram on a monthly basis is gradually fading, showing a weakening downward momentum. This pattern has repeatedly appeared in past major bottoming phases. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also attempting a rebound from the oversold zone, supporting the possibility of an upward reversal.

However, as the possibility of short-term volatility still remains, a phased approach strategy is required. While a more aggressive increase in allocation is possible if the risk score enters between 0 and 20, the analysis suggests that a dollar-cost averaging strategy is effective in the current phase. As institutional integration and institutional fund inflows accelerate, investors are advised to maintain risk management standards and gradually respond to the market.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*