Bitcoin, has the halving surge formula broken?..."This cycle's performance is the most dismal"

▲ Bitcoin(BTC)

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded its lowest performance among all halving cycles to date, indicating a fundamental shift in the market's price surge formula.

According to Cointelegraph, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at investment firm Galaxy, diagnosed on April 19 (local time) that the current Bitcoin market cycle is significantly weaker compared to the previous three halving cycles. Thorn analyzed that, comparing the price trend after the April 2024 halving with those of 2012, 2016, and 2020, both volatility and the extent of price increases have significantly decreased. Bitcoin surpassed $125,000 on October 5, 2025, reaching an all-time high, but this represents only a 97% increase from the halving price of approximately $63,000.

The current underperformance becomes even clearer when compared to past halving cycle achievements. Bitcoin surged approximately 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, soaring to $1,163. In the 2016 cycle, it rose by about 2,950% to reach $19,891. After the 2020 halving, it showed a price increase of approximately 761%. Thorn stated, "The current fourth cycle is dramatically underperforming compared to previous cycles," raising the possibility that this phenomenon could become a new normal for the market.

Market volatility indicators also show a distinctly different pattern from the past. Bitcoin's 30-day volatility index once soared to 9.64% in April 2020, but has not exceeded 3.11% in this cycle. According to Bitbo data, the recent 30-day volatility estimate has dropped to around 1.75%. This suggests that Bitcoin's price is no longer solely dependent on halvings or the four-year cycle theory, but has begun to be more significantly influenced by other external factors, such as the macro economy.

Some experts analyze that the underperformance of this cycle is due to an unusual surge before the halving. Bitcoin had already surpassed $70,000 and set a new all-time high in March, one month before the April 2024 halving. The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. in January led to a preemptive influx of funds, which accelerated the timing of price increases. This historical anomaly is explained as making the relative price performance after the halving appear lower.

Reduced volatility is also mitigating the depth of bear markets. Zack Wainwright, a research analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, noted that unlike past bear markets where Bitcoin plummeted by 80% to 90%, this time the decline from its peak remained around 50%. An adjustment of about half the value is analyzed as a much more stable trend compared to the past. Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management firm VanEck, stated, "Bitcoin is nearing its bottom," and predicted that "it will resume a gradual uptrend starting this year."

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*