Bitcoin Rebound is a 'Trick'... Benjamin Cowen "Further Decline Until Year-End"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), decline/ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) recently showed a rebound and reached a technical resistance level. However, the market views this as a temporary phenomenon within a bear market, and claims have emerged that further declines will continue until the end of the year.

On April 20 (local time), crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen analyzed in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel that Bitcoin has currently entered a bear market resistance band. Cowen diagnosed that although Bitcoin recently surged to around $78,415, the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), it is difficult to view this as a long-term trend reversal. While a decline cannot be concluded simply by the price forming a tail at the resistance line and falling, he explained that there is a high probability of strong resistance in this area, similar to cases in 2018 and 2022.

The fact that this year is a U.S. midterm election year was also pointed out as a major factor increasing downward pressure on the market. Cowen explained that historically, midterm election years tend to form lows in February and April. This April low showed a pattern of higher lows compared to February. This is similar to the trend in 2018, when the bullish momentum after the April low lasted only until early May before reversing into a downtrend.

Macroeconomic schedules are also likely to be inflection points for the market at the end of April. Cowen predicted that the Federal Reserve meeting and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, both scheduled for April 29, would be crucial turning points for the market's direction. Even if Bitcoin breaks through its current resistance band, it would be difficult to show a sustained rally beyond the next resistance level, the 200-day moving average, according to the analysis. The market appears not to be in a phase of completing a correction and preparing for a new leap, but rather will go through a process of reconfirming the bottom after a temporary rebound.

Bitcoin's relatively low returns also lend weight to the bear market argument. Cowen pointed out that this year, Bitcoin has performed poorly compared to real asset markets such as the energy, manufacturing, and metals sectors. He advised that focusing on the bullish trends formed in other markets rather than on internal rebounds within the cryptocurrency market might be an effective investment strategy. The current rebound is a typical reaction within a bear market, and there isn't enough upward energy.

If Bitcoin fails to decisively break through the $76,000 resistance level, there is a high risk of it falling back to the $70,000 mark. Cowen also expressed a negative view on the optimism that the current situation is similar to 2019, citing insufficient accumulation time. He predicts that Bitcoin will continue its sideways trading battle between the resistance band and the 200-day moving average, eventually turning downwards. Investors should pay attention to the volatility expected at the end of April and refine their market response strategies from a conservative perspective.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*