Bitcoin as Truce Expiration Nears: Crash to $65,000 or Surge to $80,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Crude Oil/ChatGPT Generated Image ©

While Bitcoin is suffering from short-term price volatility due to geopolitical risks from the Middle East, behind the scenes, an unprecedented accumulation by whales is underway, and a rosy forecast from experts suggests that the strongest bull market of the year will unfold in the upcoming May, drawing the attention of investors.

According to crypto media outlet Bitcoinist on April 21 (local time), market analyst Sam Daodu diagnosed that the rapidly changing situation in the Middle East is increasing volatility in the virtual asset market. As Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz and withdrew from peace talks, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted to the $73,000 level last Sunday, and he analyzed that all eyes in the market are currently on Wednesday, April 22, when the truce expires.

The expert cited the upcoming Wednesday as a critical turning point that will determine Bitcoin's direction in April, presenting two scenarios. If the truce is extended or new talks are announced, leading to a drop in oil prices to the $90 level, Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory towards $78,000. In particular, if the review schedule for the Clarity Act, a U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, is confirmed before the end of this month, reaching $80,000 before the April close could become a reality.

Conversely, he expressed concern that if armed conflict resumes and oil prices once again surpass $100, the entire market would face strong downward pressure. Although Bitcoin has firmly maintained the $70,000 support level through several geopolitical crises in the past, he warned that if the double whammy of a broken truce and failed talks occurs simultaneously, the psychological defense line could collapse, sending Bitcoin plummeting to $65,000 in one go.

Despite these short-term uncertainties, the underlying market trend is quietly preparing for an explosive bull run. Over the past 30 days, large Bitcoin wallets have accumulated a staggering 270,000 units, marking the largest monthly accumulation since 2013. Simultaneously, Bitcoin holdings on virtual asset exchanges have plunged to a seven-year low, indicating a sharp decrease in potential selling pressure.

Consequently, Daodu pointed out that while retail investors are reacting emotionally to breaking news about the truce and engaging in panic selling, large capital is quietly increasing its holdings by fully utilizing this volatility. Although the recent price trend might be a temporary cooling-off period, he concluded that the entry environment in May, with fundamentals and supply-demand perfectly aligned, is stronger than at any other time this year.

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