"Volatility has already begun"...XRP, will it break $1.5 or fall to $1.3?

▲ XRP/AI generated image

XRP has reached the apex of a symmetrical triangle pattern. However, due to the deteriorating short-term indicators, it stands at a critical crossroads between an upward breakout and a downward fall.

Crypto news outlet CryptoNews reported on April 21 (local time) that XRP reached $1.4311, hitting the apex of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. XRP has been undergoing a strong compression between a downtrend line descending from its peak of $1.90 recorded in February and an uptrend line rising from its March low of $1.20. Reaching this apex is interpreted as an imminent signal that the price direction will soon be determined, as price volatility is maximized in this zone.

The 4-hour Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) technical indicator sent a bearish crossover signal, foreshadowing short-term downward pressure. The MACD line falling below the signal line (0.0021 below 0.0052) suggests that short-term buying momentum is weakening. In particular, the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.4373 is acting as a strong resistance level just above the current price, and analysis suggests that if it fails to break above this, the downtrend could intensify.

On the other hand, institutional investors' capital flows show a contrasting picture to the bearish technical signals. On April 14, weekly inflows into XRP spot ETFs reached $17 million, marking the largest influx since early February. This structural demand from institutions is providing strong support, preventing price declines despite the deteriorating 4-hour indicators. With a steady inflow of institutional funds, a tense standoff continues at the apex between technical downward pressure and institutional buying power.

Indicators in the futures market also remain relatively calm ahead of major volatility. According to Coinglass data, XRP perpetual futures open interest is approximately $2.48 billion, significantly lower than the $9 billion recorded last October. This indicates that speculative positions have been largely cleared, suggesting that the risk of cascading liquidations during price swings is significantly lower than in the past. Thanks to the cleaner technical environment, the direction of this apex breakout is expected to become clearer.

XRP's future trajectory depends on whether it breaks the $1.4373 resistance level and the $1.37 support level. If XRP breaks above $1.4373 and the upper trendline of the triangle simultaneously, closing a 4-hour candle, there is a strong possibility that it will continue its rally past the primary target of $1.50 to $1.68.

However, if the lower trendline formed between $1.37 and $1.38 breaks, there is a risk of a retreat to $1.30 and then to the major demand zone of $1.20. Investors should carefully respond by observing changes in trading volume when price compression ends.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and is not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*