Bitcoin to $500,000? Why are institutional forecasts so divided?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Investment ©Godasol

Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts are soaring to as high as $500,000, and market expectations are entering an overheated phase once again.

According to the cryptocurrency media outlet Bitcoinist on April 23 (local time), Bitcoin price forecasts presented by key financial figures, including global banks, hedge funds, and venture capitalists, ranged widely from the early $100,000s to as high as $500,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $78,000, continuing its rebound trend.

The market environment is also showing gradual improvement. Bitcoin recently recovered to $78,000, and spot ETF fund flows have turned back to net inflows. Furthermore, open interest in the derivatives market has exceeded $120 billion, indicating renewed expectations for a rise. However, the price is still about 38% lower than its peak of $126,080 in October 2025.

Target prices vary by institution. Citigroup presented approximately $126,000 as its base scenario by the end of 2026, Pantera Capital suggested $148,000, JPMorgan $150,000-$170,000, VanEck $180,000, and Standard Chartered $150,000-$200,000. These forecasts reflect expectations such as the passage of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, the CLARITY Act.

There are also quite a few stronger bullish scenarios. Tom Lee suggested $189,000, Tim Draper $250,000, Cathie Wood $275,000, and Robert Kiyosaki $350,000. Furthermore, Anthony Scaramucci projected $400,000, and Chamath Palihapitiya and Mike Novogratz forecast up to $500,000. These figures reflect a potential upside of approximately 550% compared to the current price.

However, opinions within the market still differ. Some institutions have lowered their target prices. Citigroup reduced its 12-month target from $143,000 to $112,000, and Standard Chartered also adjusted its short-term target from $300,000 to $150,000. Nevertheless, they maintain the $500,000 scenario in the long term, leaving room for further upside.

Ultimately, the Bitcoin market stands at a 'crossroads' where, despite optimism, there is no consensus on its direction. If the price gains additional upward momentum, the higher forecasts from major institutions could materialize, but conversely, if a correction continues, there is also a possibility of converging towards more conservative scenarios.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*