US Crypto Bill, Chance of Passage This Year Drops to 50%..."If It Passes May, It's Virtually Over"

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The U.S. Senate's decision to postpone the deliberation schedule for the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, aimed at clarifying virtual asset regulations, until the end of May, has put the bill's chances of passing this year at risk of being halved.

According to CoinGape, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on April 22 (local time), virtual asset investment firm Galaxy Digital significantly lowered the probability of the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill (CLARITY) being enacted by 2026 from the original 82% to 50%. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, diagnosed that the legislative momentum is rapidly weakening due to the Senate's tight schedule and conflicting political interests. In Polymarket, a prediction market, the bill's passage probability has also fallen to 47%, supporting the market's pessimistic outlook.

The delay in the Senate's schedule is attributed to a backlog of national issues, such as the Iranian military aid package and the Homeland Security budget bill. Thorn predicted that if the Senate deliberation extends beyond mid-May, it would be virtually impossible for the bill to be processed within the year due to a lack of physical time. In particular, as the country enters the midterm election phase scheduled for November, all congressional discussions will shift to an election footing, and legislative procedures are likely to be pushed aside. If the results of the election change the majority party in the House of Representatives, the bill would face a situation where it would have to be discussed again from scratch.

The gap between regulatory bodies and the industry regarding the detailed issues of the bill still remains unbridged. There is strong opposition from the financial sector regarding the reward system for stablecoin issuance and the provision excluding software developers who do not provide custody functions from regulation. The issue of adjusting regulatory jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also remains unresolved. These internal conflicts are lowering the completeness of the bill and hindering lawmakers from reaching a consensus.

The bill previously confirmed bipartisan support, passing the House of Representatives in July 2025 by an overwhelming margin, including the approval of 78 Democratic members. In the Senate, with a structure of 53 Republican seats and 47 Democratic seats, the cooperation of at least 7 to 10 Democratic senators is essential. The virtual asset industry desperately desires the passage of this bill to attract institutional investors by securing regulatory clarity. This is why the entire market, including Bitcoin (BTC), considers establishing a legal foundation for institutional integration as a top priority.

Galaxy Digital explained that a vote in a full Senate session in July is theoretically the last possible opportunity. This would require strong political will within Congress and coordination between parties. The fate of the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Bill depends on the speed of discussions in the Senate standing committee over the next few weeks. Investors are closely monitoring the impact of legislative delays on investment sentiment and supply and demand in the virtual asset market.

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