Is the CLARITY Act's Passage Unlikely? Probability Plunges to 43% "Crypto Regulation Hopes Dashed"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), XRP (XRP), United States / AI-generated image ©

Hopes for the passage of the CLARITY Act, a bill concerning the structure of the U.S. cryptocurrency market, have sharply declined, leading the market to once again reflect the risk of regulatory uncertainty.

According to the crypto media outlet Finbold on April 23 (local time), the probability of the CLARITY Act passing by 2026 on the decentralized prediction market Myriad plummeted by 21 percentage points in just five days, from 64% to 43%. Notably, it dropped by about 22% in the last 24 hours alone, indicating a rapid cooling of market expectations.

This drop marks the lowest level in several months. The probability of the bill's passage had fallen to 40% in the third week of January 2026, then surged to 82% on February 20, but subsequently fluctuated around 60% before sharply collapsing this week. The market seems to have concluded that the momentum for the bill's advancement has weakened.

The biggest reason is the delay in the Senate schedule. Senator Thom Tillis, who is leading the bill's coordination, stated that the markup (bill deliberation), originally scheduled for April, would be postponed. He instead mentioned the possibility of the schedule being pushed to mid-May, explaining that further discussion is needed on key issues within the bill, particularly regarding stablecoin revenue structures.

Such schedule delays significantly shook market expectations. With the August Senate recess approaching, the sentiment spread that the likelihood of the bill reaching President Donald Trump's desk for signature within the year has decreased. The outlet analyzed that traders are therefore reflecting a lower short-term probability of the bill's passage.

Ultimately, the CLARITY Act was considered a key catalyst for the overall cryptocurrency market, but increasing scheduling uncertainty has once again highlighted the disparity between expectations and reality. The market anticipates that the regulatory environment and the direction of institutional capital flows will change significantly depending on whether the deliberation proceeds in May.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*