Did observation equipment manipulation raise the temperature by 4 degrees? Suspicious weather betting on Polymarket

Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport

On the 6th, an 'abnormal phenomenon' was detected at the temperature observation station at Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris, France, where the temperature soared by several degrees within just a few minutes.

On the 15th, a phenomenon was observed where the temperature soared again while humidity dropped sharply.

At that moment, there were people quietly smiling on the online betting site Polymarket. They were gamblers who had placed large bets on the unexpected temperature rise in Paris.

According to the British daily Financial Times (FT) on the 23rd (local time), Météo-France (the French meteorological agency) recognized this abnormal situation and requested the police to investigate whether there was a possibility of equipment manipulation behind it.

Indeed, on the 6th, busy settlements were made on Polymarket.

At that time, a gambler who bet only $30 on the temperature in Paris rising to 21 degrees made a profit of as much as $13,990 from one account.

The account in question was suddenly opened earlier this month, and its betting strategy involves predicting the day's highest temperature based on Météo-France data.

This suspicious pattern continued on the 15th as well.

At that time, there was a moment when the temperature soared from 18 degrees to 22 degrees within just a few minutes and then dropped again. Coincidentally, a gambler placed a $119 bet at this exact moment and made a profit of $21,000.

The betting volume for 'Paris highest temperature' on Polymarket on the 6th and 15th exceeded $500,000, which is more than double the daily average, FT reported.

The first to notice these signs were members of 'Infoclimat', an online weather analysis group.

They track Météo-France data almost in real-time, and they reported detecting abnormal patterns on both the 6th and the 15th.

Sébastien Bran, the group's representative, said, "On the 6th, I thought it was a sensor problem, like a sudden temperature change at dusk just before a storm. But when the same phenomenon occurred again on the 15th, it became clear that there was another cause."

Consequently, the French police, upon receiving a report from the meteorological agency, launched an investigation by deploying its cybercrime unit, the British daily Guardian reported.

The Guardian particularly reported that one of the gamblers involved in the suspicious weather betting also had a history of betting on Seoul's temperature.

A Météo-France official explained that the police report was based on "physical evidence found on measurement equipment and analysis of sensor data."

This statement suggests the possibility that the measurement equipment was tampered with.

Polymarket, which originated in the United States, is a site where anonymous users bet money by predicting the probability of future events regarding issues such as politics, society, and sports. It promotes itself as being able to avoid traceability due to its cryptocurrency basis.

On this site, large sums of money are reportedly being bet, especially on issues such as the prospects of US President Donald Trump or the military operation trends of the Israeli army.