Will it take 10 more years for Bitcoin to be recognized as a safe haven asset?… Warning signs for long position liquidation

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Gold/AI generated image ©

Bitcoin (BTC), which was expected to be the ultimate safe haven asset amid geopolitical crises and macroeconomic uncertainties, is still fluctuating like a risk asset, moving in sync with tech stocks, demanding market attention.

According to the cryptocurrency specialized media Bitcoinist on April 25 (local time), renowned virtual asset analyst Willy Woo diagnosed that despite Bitcoin possessing all the essential characteristics of a safe-haven asset, such as independence and censorship resistance, it still exhibits the behavior of a risk asset, reacting sensitively to external uncertainties much like the NASDAQ index. This is because institutions managing large amounts of capital still consider virtual assets new and unproven, thus not fully recognizing their characteristics.

Willy Woo predicted that Bitcoin would need another decade to gain full market recognition as a true store of value, competing with gold in the modern financial system. Currently, despite its potential to preserve wealth across borders during wars or crises, it still shows vulnerability in the face of structural market instability.

Technical trends within the market also strongly suggest downward pressure. Analyst ctm_trader pointed out that Bitcoin is showing clear bearish signs, forming a Market Structure Shift (MSS) from its highs into a bear market. The price has failed to sustain its uptrend and has returned to its previous range, losing momentum for the first time since the rally began, with a warning that a retest of the channel's lower boundary could occur soon.

Specifically, the current market liquidity is heavily concentrated below the current price level, and long positions significantly outweigh short positions, creating a dangerous situation where the probability of a downward breakout is much higher than continued upward movement. The media analyzed that this severe market imbalance could provide a perfect opportunity for market makers to trigger a long squeeze, causing a cascade of liquidations for long positions.

Virtual asset trader Minga also warned that Bitcoin is trading within a bearish flag-shaped rising wedge structure and consistently facing resistance at the monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG). All attempts to break through the resistance line appear to be temporary relief rallies rather than true bullish moves, and if the resistance line cannot be reclaimed with overwhelming buying pressure, the market is preparing for a deeper decline.

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