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▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©
With the second round of US-Iran peace negotiations collapsing in vain and a series of major events to determine the direction of benchmark interest rates looming, the global virtual asset market has entered a period of extreme caution. As macroeconomic uncertainty reaches its peak, investors are refraining from premature bets and maintaining a thorough wait-and-see attitude.
According to CoinMarketCap, a cryptocurrency market tracking site, as of 8:38 AM KST on the 26th, the global virtual asset market capitalization recorded $2.59 trillion, a 0.45% decrease from the previous day. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, traded at $77,530.15, down 0.04% from 24 hours ago, engaging in a tedious tug-of-war around the $77,000 mark. Ethereum rose 0.03% to $2,316.09, XRP (Ripple) fell 1.07% to $1.42, and Solana decreased by 0.64% to $85.91. Most major top market cap coins are holding their breath, showing narrow fluctuations within approximately 1%. The Fear & Greed Index, which indicates market sentiment, pointed to 44 (Neutral).
The main reasons for this tedious sideways market are the re-ignition of geopolitical risks and caution regarding the release of macroeconomic indicators. The second round of US-Iran negotiations, which had garnered expectations over the weekend, faltered due to the absence of President Donald Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, leading to a renewed escalation of tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Adding to this, the regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the 29th (Eastern US Time) is casting a dark cloud over the market. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate freeze in April is 99%, suggesting no change in interest rates. However, the market is highly attentive to the hawkish (preferring monetary tightening) remarks from Fed officials that might indicate future interest rate hikes. The US March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, to be announced consecutively on the 30th, are also considered key indicators for confirming inflationary pressures.
Experts diagnose that the earnings announcements of the so-called 'Magnificent 7 (M7)', the giant tech companies leading the New York stock market this week, are the most powerful variable that will determine the short-term direction of the virtual asset market. On the 29th, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, followed by Apple on the 30th, will release their earnings, accounting for five of the M7 companies.
An industry official stated, "The reason why the New York stock market and the virtual asset market have not collapsed recently, even amidst geopolitical woes, is due to the anticipation of robust earnings from large tech stocks." They warned, "If M7 companies deliver earnings that fall short of market expectations despite massive capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence (AI), investor sentiment could rapidly freeze, leading to a strong selling storm across risk assets, including Bitcoin." Conversely, if they report earnings surprises that exceed expectations, there is also a possibility that the virtual asset market could ride the New York stock market rally, breaking through downward pressure and attempting a strong rebound.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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