"If This Line Is Crossed, No Bottom Will Be Seen"…Will Bitcoin's 13-Year '30% Rule' Work Again?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Dasol Go

Market tension is rising as Bitcoin (BTC) approaches a 'statistical turning point that has never been broken in history,' not just simple resistance.

According to crypto-specialized media Bitcoinist on April 26 (local time), Bitcoin has maintained a pattern for 13 years where it does not retest a cycle low after a 30% rebound from that low. This rule has never been broken in a total of 6 major cycles.

This year's trend is also similar. Bitcoin recorded a low of approximately $61,300 in February and has continued to rebound, rising about 28% to date. From this perspective, the 30% recovery line is approximately $79,694, which is effectively considered a key turning point that determines entry into a 'no-retrace upward trend.'

Past examples are strong. After breaking through a 30% rebound from the $2.01 low in 2011, it surged to $1,163, and the same pattern was repeated at the $152 low in 2015, the $3,858 low in 2020, and the $17,592 low in 2022. Notably, the $15,460 low formed after the FTX collapse in 2022 was also no exception.

The current price is around $77,620, with only about a 2.7% increase remaining to reach the 30% threshold. Earlier this week, it approached $79,000, nearly reaching the historical turning point.

On-chain metrics also support this. Bitcoin holdings on exchanges have decreased to an all-time low, and over the past 30 days, large investors have purchased an additional approximately 270,000 BTC, marking the largest monthly accumulation since 2013.

Now, market attention is narrowed to one thing: whether Bitcoin will break $79,694 and prove the '30% rule' again, or if the 13-year statistic will be broken for the first time.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*