XRP, countdown to $1 collapse begins...200-week line broken, 47% further plunge becomes reality?

▲ XRP

XRP has given up the 200-week moving average, a key indicator of long-term trends, technically raising the possibility of a massive additional decline of up to 47%, heightening investor anxiety.

According to U.Today, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on April 28 (local time), XRP has fallen below the 200-week moving average, which was considered a psychological and technical last line of defense, due to its recent decline. Virtual asset analysts analyzed that this breakdown of the support line suggests a fundamental weakening of the market structure beyond a simple correction. The 200-week moving average is used as a critical indicator separating the long-term rise and fall of an asset, and if this line turns into a resistance line, downward pressure can intensify.

Technical analysis shows that XRP is currently facing additional downward pressure, being blocked by resistance around $1.4. U.Today warned that this break of the support line has opened up a technical downside target of up to 47% below current levels. If this scenario materializes, the XRP price risks falling below the $1 mark and entering a long-term sideways trading range. Amid weakened market buying sentiment, a slight increase in supply on exchanges also supports the possibility of a decline.

Key secondary indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also indicate a weakening of buying power. In particular, Santiment's on-chain data shows that the activity of large investors, or 'whales,' has decreased to 2021 low levels, indicating a lack of willingness to defend the market. The ongoing regulatory uncertainty between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), along with the delay in processing the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, is also accelerating the exit of large investors.

From a macroeconomic perspective, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and increased crude oil prices are acting as headwinds for XRP, fostering a risk-off sentiment. As Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim the $80,000 mark and underwent a correction, the overall altcoin market sentiment index has fallen to a neutral stage. Investors diagnosed that capital rotation into Ethereum spot ETFs or user outflow to Layer 2 networks is diminishing the attractiveness of the Ripple ecosystem.

For XRP to reverse its downward trend, it must quickly reclaim the $1.42 level on a weekly closing basis. Without decisive intervention from buyers, support levels around $1.11 and $1 are expected to be tested sequentially. Virtual asset analysts are also considering the possibility that the current decline could be the market's final capitulation phase, but advise focusing on risk management and maintaining a conservative stance for the time being. XRP continues its struggle to establish new price defense lines at a technical crossroads.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*