Bitcoin: If $76,800 holds, will it reach $90,000?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) ©Go Dasol

Bitcoin stands at a crossroads, facing either a rebound to $82,700 or a sharp drop to $68,000, depending on whether it can defend the $76,800 support level.

According to TradingNews, an investment media outlet, on April 28 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $75,996 and undergoing a correction after failing to break past its high of $79,488. Analysis suggests that if the $76,800 support level is maintained, an upward path to $82,700 and even $90,000 could open up. However, if it falls below $73,000, the risk of a decline to $68,000, or even $60,000, could increase.

The recent decline is attributed to a deteriorating macro environment. Oil prices surpassed $111 amidst a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled US-Iran negotiations, while the Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 98.74. Furthermore, the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.374%, creating a structure that absorbs funds from risk assets. The Bank of Japan also kept interest rates at 0.75% but sent hawkish signals by raising its inflation forecast to 2.8%.

Technically, the $76,800-$77,500 range is considered a key turning point. This area is where the bottom of the ascending channel overlaps with the 20 and 50 EMAs. If defended, there's potential for an approximately 7.7% rise to $82,700. Conversely, if it breaks down, the downtrend is likely to accelerate, passing through $73,600 to $68,000. On a weekly basis, breaking $80,000 acts as a bullish trigger, and if successful, scenarios for an ascent to $83,000, $90,000, and even $97,000 are presented.

On-chain indicators show a different picture. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) has recovered to around the $72,750 level, signaling a bottom formation, with a mean reversion target of $94,500. Additionally, approximately $6 billion in stablecoins flowed into Binance during March and April, accumulating waiting capital, and Bitcoin spot ETFs are expected to see $5 billion in inflows in April alone. MicroStrategy further strengthened the market's bottom support structure by purchasing an additional $4.1 billion worth of Bitcoin throughout April.

Ultimately, the market is expected to determine its direction between the $80,000 resistance and $73,000 support. If $76,800 is defended and $79,000 is successfully re-breached, the likelihood of a return to an uptrend increases. However, if $73,000 is breached, downward pressure could quickly escalate. In the short term, a cautious, near-neutral approach is required, while in the mid-to-long term, the upward structure is assessed to be maintained.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*