Bitcoin, collapses below $76,000... Is price recovery possible?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Bear Market/AI Generated Image

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break the $80,000 resistance and fell below the $76,000 level, leading to mixed signals from on-chain data regarding future recovery prospects.

According to Cointelegraph, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on April 28 (local time), Bitcoin showed a downward trend due to uncertainties related to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and macroeconomic anxieties. Currently, Bitcoin is stuck between a strong technical support level of $75,500 and a psychological resistance level of $80,000. Experts analyzed that this correction is a typical market reaction ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Looking at technical indicators, the $75,500 range is a key support level where the 20-day and 100-day moving averages pass. Glassnode's Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) realized price distribution data indicates that approximately 298,560 BTC were bought around $75,500. Conversely, around $78,000, 335,650 BTC have been accumulated, indicating strong short-term resistance from selling pressure. Significant oversupply also exists between $82,000 and $84,000.

On-chain data shows a mixed trend, with upward momentum coexisting with cautious sentiment. Over the past week, the spot cumulative volume delta surged by approximately 200%, from $18.3 million to $54.8 million, demonstrating strong buying pressure. However, spot trading volume decreased by 13.8%, from $6.95 billion to $5.99 billion. The number of daily active addresses also fell by 1.6%, suggesting a decline in network participation and speculative interest.

Institutional investor demand also remains neutral. Strategy, the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, recently demonstrated market confidence by purchasing an additional 3,273 BTC at a price of $78,000. However, in the US Bitcoin spot ETF market, a net outflow of $273 million was recorded last Monday, breaking a nine-day streak of inflows. Swissblock diagnosed that while Bitcoin's price structure indicates an upward trend, its fundamentals remain fragile.

Currently, the market is sandwiched on the liquidation heatmap between sell orders at $78,600 and buy orders below the spot price. Advice suggests that fundamentals need to strengthen beyond neutral for the price to successfully reverse its mid-term trend. Investors are maintaining a cautious attitude, balancing risk management and capital rotation. Bitcoin now needs a strong catalyst to overcome weak network indicators and reclaim the $80,000 high.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*