"If it can't break through now, it's over"...Bitcoin enters the final 2 weeks before the bear market wall

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a critical zone, the bear market resistance band, entering a crucial phase where its direction will be determined within the next 1-2 weeks. If it fails to break through this zone, the likelihood of a downtrend resuming increases.

Benjamin Cowen analyzed in a video released on his YouTube channel on April 28 (local time) that Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance at the bear market resistance band. He explained that this trend is similar to historical patterns that have repeated in midterm election years. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin also faced resistance and underwent corrections in the same zone, emphasizing that an uptrend is difficult to sustain unless the resistance line turns into a support line.

The macro environment is also acting as a burden. A rebound in the energy sector ETF (XLE) is likely to put pressure on the virtual asset market. Cowen pointed out that rising oil prices could delay the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut, which is a negative variable for Bitcoin, which relies on liquidity. Indeed, in 2022, there was a case where the peak of energy stocks coincided with the bottom of Bitcoin.

The current market structure is more similar to the late 2018 bear market trend than the early 2019 bull run. At that time, after the formation of a higher-order time frame in April, a sharp decline followed, starting with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Cowen identified the fact that funds are not circulating into altcoins despite Bitcoin dominance rising as a key risk factor. He believes that a rebound without sufficient correction has low sustainability.

The movement of stablecoin dominance is also interpreted as a warning sign. A pattern of Bitcoin price falling whenever stablecoin dominance rises has been repeated. In particular, with this correction occurring amid indifference rather than market overheating, a clear weakening of investor sentiment is evident.

Bitcoin must decide whether to break through the bear market resistance band in the short term. If it fails to reclaim the 200-day moving average, downward pressure could expand, and the possibility of retesting the $60,000 zone remains open. The market has entered a risk management phase, closely watching energy prices and changes in interest rate policy.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*