Charles Hoskinson: "Bitcoin will end when quantum computers arrive"...Hard Fork War on the brink of explosion

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Quantum Computer/AI Generated Image

The rapid advancement of quantum computer technology directly threatens Bitcoin's security system, signaling structural conflicts across the entire virtual asset market. It is anticipated that if existing cryptographic technologies are neutralized, large-scale hard fork conflicts over changes to the signature scheme will be inevitable.

Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, stated in an interview with Paul Barron Network on April 28 (local time) that the point at which quantum computers will collapse current cryptographic systems is arriving sooner than expected. He explained that Ethereum developers have adjusted the timeline for quantum threats to before 2032, and the U.S. Department of Defense and major corporations are also intensively reviewing risks before 2033. While post-quantum cryptography technology is being proposed as an alternative, its practical application has limitations due to increased signature size and reduced processing speed.

Bitcoin, in particular, is expected to face severe internal conflicts surrounding the issue of handling assets in addresses that have not been used for a long time. Hoskinson pointed out that if discussions arise about freezing or moving dormant assets, including Satoshi Nakamoto's initial holdings, extreme conflicts could occur between institutional investors and existing Bitcoin supporters. Although a hard fork that intervenes with assets without legal authority could shake the foundation of the network, it is emerging as an unavoidable choice to address security threats.

Meanwhile, in traditional finance, technological competition for real-world asset tokenization and privacy protection is gaining momentum. Midnight, part of the Cardano ecosystem, has proposed a structure that enables regulatory compliance without exposing personal information through zero-knowledge proof-based self-sovereign identity technology. As seen in the collaboration with Monument Bank, the possibility of saving hundreds of billions of dollars annually in financial compliance costs through on-chain automated systems is also being raised.

Market leadership is also expected to change. Hoskinson analyzed that the center of virtual asset economic activity will shift from humans to AI agents in the future. In such an environment, open networks are more likely to gain competitiveness than closed systems. At the same time, concerns were raised that if the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill is designed primarily around existing assets, it could limit growth opportunities for new projects.

The virtual asset industry is facing a new turning point amidst the dual pressures of regulation and technology. Choices regarding quantum threat response and network structure reorganization are emerging as key variables determining the future direction of the market.

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