Bitcoin to hit $100,000 after a $75,000 correction?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/AI Generated Image ©

Clear signs are emerging that the slowdown in Bitcoin's upward momentum is due to a simultaneous outflow of leveraged funds and macroeconomic pressure.

According to the investment media outlet TradingNews on April 29 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $76,600, remaining about 6% below its all-time high. While it rose 0.46% in 24 hours, 12.49% in 30 days, and 17.49% in 60 days, the market internally shows a mixed trend with both structural strength and short-term vulnerability.

Notably, the funding rate, a key indicator of open interest in the derivatives market, plummeted to an annualized 3%, its lowest level in a year, which is identified as a decisive signal. This implies that leveraged buying has virtually disappeared, and spot buying along with Bitcoin spot ETF funds are supporting the price. In fact, cumulative Bitcoin spot ETF inflows in April reached $2.43 billion, but during the same period, the price actually fell from $79,000 to $76,000, revealing a divergence between institutional demand and short-term price movements.

Technically, $76,900 has been presented as a key turning point for short-term direction. If the $78,300-$78,500 range is reclaimed with volume, it opens up the possibility of breaking $79,300 and extending to $80,100. However, if this support level is lost, it could quickly push down to $75,000 after passing through the $75,800-$76,200 range. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought zone, indicating short-term fatigue signals.

The macroeconomic environment is also a burden. Amid rising oil prices and persistent inflationary pressures, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have virtually receded. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.401%, and the 30-year yield is on the verge of breaking 5%. If long-term interest rates continue to rise, a readjustment across all risk assets will be inevitable, and Bitcoin is no exception, according to assessments.

However, the structural foundation remains robust. Long-term holdings (1 year or more) account for 70% of the total supply, and decreasing exchange reserves coupled with continuous institutional investor inflows are reducing supply pressure. With investors sensitive to macroeconomic variables having already left the market, remaining investors show a tendency to buy on dips, and volatility has significantly decreased from 4.5% in 2021-2022 to around 1.6% in 2025.

In conclusion, in the short term, the defense of the $76,900 level is a key variable, and structurally, institutional capital inflows and supply reduction maintain the mid-to-long-term upward foundation. However, a breakthrough above $80,000 may be limited unless leveraged participation resumes, and a correction to the $75,000 range is being interpreted as a buying opportunity for long-term investors.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*