XRP May 'Holding Market' Expected... 78% Chance of Maintaining $1.33

▲ Ripple (XRP) ©

As May approaches, clear signals indicate that XRP (Ripple) is more likely to experience a 'holding market' rather than a significant rally, limiting its short-term direction.

According to crypto media outlet Finbold on April 29 (local time), data from prediction market Kalshi shows that the probability of XRP maintaining above $1.33 as of May 1, 5 PM, is 78%. This signifies high market confidence that it will defend this support level even amidst volatility.

However, upside expectations are limited. While the probability of XRP reaching above $1.35 was 66%, the chance of rising above $1.37 dropped to 43%. This suggests that short-term sideways movement is more likely than upward momentum.

Actual price movements also reflect this. XRP remains at a low level compared to its 2025 high of approximately $3.65 and has been moving within a $1.30-$1.50 range for most of this year. As of late April, the price was about $1.36, down approximately 1% in a day and over 5% on a weekly basis.

Institutional supply and demand are positive. XRP spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $82 million during April, marking the strongest monthly inflow since 2026. This figure fully offset the outflows in March, with cumulative inflows exceeding $1.29 billion. Funds from Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and others have consistently flowed in, maintaining institutional interest despite price stagnation.

The short-term technical levels are also clear. For XRP, the $1.33-$1.35 range acts as the primary support level, with $1.30, $1.26, and an additional $1.20 identified as key defensive lines on the downside. Conversely, overhead resistances are $1.42 and $1.46, with the critical breakout zone suggested at $1.50-$1.55. If $1.50 is decisively breached, a short-term extension to $1.60, and potentially up to $1.90, is mentioned.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*