Solana Plummets 33% but Projected to Reach $125... Is Now the Reversal Point?

▲ Solana (SOL)/ChatGPT generated image ©

Solana has seen the weakest performance among major coins this year, plummeting 33%, but Western Union's choice of its stablecoin has left a spark for a potential reversal.

According to investment media outlet TradingNews on April 30 (local time), Solana (SOL) traded around $83.11, confined within an intraday range of $81.57 to $83.95. Its market capitalization stood at $47.96 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $3.51 billion. With a year-to-date return of -33%, Solana recorded the worst performance among the top 5 cryptocurrencies, recovering only 2.8% in April's rebound, unlike Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), which rose 14% and 10% respectively.

The biggest positive news is Western Union's decision to issue its own USD-pegged stablecoin, USDPT, on the Solana network. Western Union, a payment infrastructure company operating remittance networks in over 200 countries and regions worldwide, interpreted this choice as a signal that Solana's low fees and fast transaction processing capabilities could also be effective in enterprise payment networks. Additionally, the cumulative inflow into Solana spot ETFs exceeded $1 billion, and Squads secured $18 million in investment led by Solana Ventures and Coinbase Ventures, further supporting the trend of institutional adoption.

However, there are also clear pressures weighing on the price. Brent crude oil exceeding $100 per barrel and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rising from 2.8% in February to 3.5% in March have increased concerns about prolonged high interest rates. The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50-3.75%, an environment where investment funds tend to favor large assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum over altcoins. Solana's relative underperformance is also notable when compared to XRP (Ripple), BNB, and HYPE.

On-chain metrics also remain weak. Solana's transaction volume has decreased for 9 consecutive weeks, falling 32% from its recent peak of 959 million transactions as of the weekend of February 8. Solana's trading volume on centralized exchanges was also approximately $22 billion last week, only half of what it was during the bull market from April to September 2025. Furthermore, the movement of over 300,000 SOL from large wallets to centralized exchanges has amplified concerns about selling pressure.

Technically, the Ichimoku Cloud baseline at $84.56 is the first turning point. If this price is recovered on a closing basis, $86.50 becomes the next target, followed by the key question of whether the $88-$90 resistance level can be broken. Surpassing $90 would set $100 and the three-month projection of $125.69 as the next targets. Conversely, a break below $80 could push it down to $77, $75, and $70, with warnings that a bearish scenario could extend to the $50-$55 range.

The media outlet believes that Solana is likely to explore its direction within the $77-$90 range in the short term. However, considering Western Union's adoption of USDPT, cumulative inflows of $1 billion into Solana spot ETFs, a weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) buy signal, and the possibility of an Elliott Wave 3, there remains potential for a recovery to the $100-$150 range in the medium term. The key variable is the macroeconomic environment. Analysis suggests that if falling oil prices, dovish signals from the Fed, and altcoin capital rotation align, Solana could transform its current stagnant sideways movement into a strong rebound.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*