Bitcoin Hit by Double Whammy of Fed Rate Freeze and Middle East Crisis...Will $70,000 Collapse?

▲ Bitcoin (BTC), cryptocurrency decline/AI-generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp drop, breaking through key support levels, as it was hit by a double whammy of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) high-interest rate policy and geopolitical risks stemming from Iran.

Cryptocurrency specialized media 99Bitcoins reported on April 30 (local time) that Bitcoin's price fell to $75,100 during intraday trading, causing investor sentiment to shrink sharply. While the US Federal Reserve maintained its tightening stance by freezing the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, the market was shocked by US President Donald Trump's outright rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Virtual asset analyst Ted Pillows analyzed that Bitcoin must retake the resistance zone between $79,000 and $80,000 to prevent further downward pressure. Pillows warned, "If it fails to break above that range, the price could be pushed down to $74,000," adding, "The psychological threshold of $70,000 could be tested."

The research team at on-chain data analysis firm Glassnode also assessed the current market structure as structurally vulnerable, citing that Bitcoin remains below its True Market Mean of $79,000.

Shubh Varma, CEO of Hyblock, interpreted this price correction as a typical "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement and cautioned against excessive fear. Varma explained that strong buying pressure is actually forming beneath the volatility, citing a record-low global bid-ask ratio of 0.3. Glassnode analyzed that a strong accumulation zone for institutional investors has been created in the $65,000 to $70,000 range, based on robust capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs and increased open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Bitcoin's future trajectory is predicted to follow three paths. A bullish scenario targeting $84,000 is valid if it recovers $80,000 within a week and geopolitical risks ease, stabilizing oil prices. A sideways scenario, where the price hovers between $74,000 and $78,000 without a significant breakout until the end of the month, and a bearish scenario, where the Iran crisis intensifies, and expectations for interest rate cuts disappear, testing the $65,000 level, coexist. The market is currently passing through a phase where the risk premium due to the Iran situation is directly reflected in the price.

The support level between $73,000 and $75,000 has been tested twice recently, opening up the possibility of forming a double bottom. The successful defense of this support level during the final closing price determination at the end of the month is expected to be a critical turning point that will determine the future mid-to-long-term trend. Expectations for a technical rebound also exist, as the reliability of the accumulation zone where institutional funds are flowing in remains high.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*