Is Bitcoin's 2-Month Rise Ending? Where is May's Trend Headed?

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Although Bitcoin continued its upward trend for two consecutive months, an analysis suggests that May's upward momentum may be limited due to institutional capital outflow and macroeconomic uncertainties.

According to investment media FXStreet on May 1 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $77,400, continuing its rebound after an early-week correction. However, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) combined with geopolitical risks in the Middle East is curbing risk asset preference.

Institutional supply and demand appear shaky in the short term. According to SoSoValue data, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $475.87 million by Thursday, raising the possibility of breaking a four-week inflow streak. However, on a monthly basis, April saw a total net inflow of $1.97 billion, continuing capital inflows for two consecutive months, and if this trend continues, there remains room for further upside.

Corporate demand remains robust. MicroStrategy recently purchased an additional 3,273 BTC for approximately $255 million, increasing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC. Despite an estimated loss of approximately $14.46 billion in Q1, the continued aggressive accumulation strategy is interpreted as a bottom support factor for the market.

The macroeconomic environment remains a burden. The Fed decided to freeze interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but internal disagreements have expanded to their highest level since 1992, and the market is reflecting a more than 10% chance of an interest rate hike by year-end, instead of lowering expectations for a rate cut in 2026. Furthermore, US-Iran conflict and rising energy prices are fueling inflation concerns, limiting Bitcoin's upside.

Technically, the upward structure is maintained but it is approaching a turning point. Bitcoin rose over 6% on a weekly basis, breaking through the $78,490 (Fibonacci 61.8%) resistance, but faced resistance near $80,000 and retreated to the $77,400 level. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to neutral at 46, suggesting a slowdown in downward momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has maintained a golden cross since mid-April, continuing to signal an uptrend. In the short term, $75,680 is a key support level, and on the upside, a breakthrough of $80,000 could open up further upside potential to $82,482 (100-week EMA).

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