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▲ Jerome Powell, Bitcoin (BTC)/AI generated image ©
Market attention is focused on whether the curse of price drops, which inevitably follows immediately after the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, will repeat itself this time. A strong warning is sounding that Bitcoin (BTC), which has experienced an average 11% sharp drop within a week in 8 out of the last 9 meetings, could once again retreat to the $70,000 mark.
According to the cryptocurrency media Bitcoinist on May 2 (local time), renowned virtual asset analyst Ardi discovered an undeniable downward pattern in the price movements following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
The Federal Reserve held a meeting from April 28 to 29 and decided to freeze the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. This exactly matches the result that the CME FedWatch had predicted with a 99% probability before the meeting.
An interesting fact emerges from the daily chart from May 2025 to late April 2026, which analyst Ardi disclosed via social media. Immediately after the last 9 meetings, Bitcoin's price showed significant selling pressure in as many as 8 instances.
The only exception was May 2025. At that time, Bitcoin had already plummeted by approximately 24% from its all-time high even before the meeting began, meaning the decline was already priced in.
What's more noteworthy is that the Federal Reserve's policy direction had a negligible impact on price declines. Regardless of whether interest rates were cut, frozen, or hawkish remarks were made, prices consistently fell immediately after the meetings without exception.
This pattern now exerts heavy downward pressure on current prices. If we apply an 11% drop rate to Bitcoin, which started from a low of around $65,000 in early April and made a 21% rebound, fluctuating between $76,000 and $79,000, it calculates that it could fall to $70,000 within the next week.
In this meeting, the Federal Reserve assessed that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace but did not lower its guard against high inflation, coupled with rising global energy prices.
Bitcoin is an asset that is extremely sensitive to market liquidity expectations. If a clear path for interest rate cuts is presented, risk asset preference would revive, the dollar would weaken, and it would act as a positive factor for the overall market. However, the Federal Reserve's cautious stance yields the opposite result.
Bitcoin made a successful rebound from its recent lows and caught a positive trend in April, but it is once again on the test stand of a historical downward pattern immediately after the meeting. It is a time for a conservative market approach, keeping open the possibility of a return to the $70,000 mark within a few days.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*
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