If it holds $77,000, it goes to $80,000... Bitcoin's 상승 Scenario

▲ U.S., Iran, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, cryptocurrency rebound/ChatGPT generated image ©

Bitcoin is once again on an upward trend, testing the possibility of re-breaking the $80,000 mark amid expectations of easing geopolitical risks.

According to CoinMarketCap, a cryptocurrency market data aggregator, on May 2 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $78,295, up 1.63% over a 24-hour period. During the same period, its correlation with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index was 86.9%, demonstrating that this rally was a typical macro-environment-driven move.

The biggest factor behind the rally is the expectation of easing geopolitical tensions. News that Iran delivered a new peace proposal to the U.S. via Pakistan on May 1 eased market risk-off sentiment. As a result, international oil prices fell, and demand for the dollar decreased, leading to a shift of funds into risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Technical factors also supported the rise. Bitcoin successfully rebounded near the 100-day exponential moving average, and simultaneously, approximately $100 million worth of positions were liquidated in the derivatives market, expanding the rally. Of this, about $83.23 million was attributed to short position liquidations, with a short squeeze accelerating the price increase.

The short-term trend is still at a critical juncture. If Bitcoin maintains the support range of $77,000-$77,500, the possibility of re-challenging $80,000 is open. However, if $76,000 breaks, a correction to $74,200 is also possible. In particular, whether it breaks above $78,500 has been identified as a key indicator for confirming the short-term trend.

The market is paying attention to the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act schedule, and the recovery of trading volume as future variables. While the current Bitcoin rally is a result of a combination of the macro environment and a technical rebound, an increase in trading volume and additional capital inflow are necessary for a sustained rise.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. This content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*