Bitcoin, thought it would rise in May... "Difficult to break $84,000"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ ChatGPT generated image

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its upward trend. However, an analysis suggests that the options market sees a low probability of breaking $84,000 in May.

According to Cointelegraph, a cryptocurrency specialized media outlet, on May 2nd (local time), Bitcoin has entered an upward phase, continuing its recent rebound, but expectations in the derivatives market remain relatively conservative. In a probability analysis based on options market prices, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 within May was approximately 25%.

On-chain indicators and profitability metrics suggest entry into the early stages of an uptrend. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has turned upwards, indicating that investors have re-entered profit territory, and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has also moved into positive territory, signaling a change in market structure.

However, key resistance zones that could limit the upside have also clearly formed. Approximately 1,100,000 BTC were purchased around an average of $84,000, making this price range a likely point for strong selling pressure. An analysis suggests that if investors sell at the breakeven point, the upward momentum could slow down.

Bitcoin's short-term key resistance is identified in the $76,000 to $78,000 range. If this range is decisively broken, upward momentum could strengthen, potentially opening a path for further gains to $84,000. Conversely, if resistance is confirmed in this range, the possibility of a short-term correction cannot be ruled out.

The market views Bitcoin as having a complex structure, with signals indicating it has already passed the bottom and entered the early stages of an upward cycle, while simultaneously facing selling pressure awaiting at major resistance zones. The low probability of an uptrend suggested by the options market is interpreted as a reflection of this uncertainty.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*