Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act, 69% Passage Probability..."Entry into Red Zone Complete"

▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Regulation / ChatGPT Generated Image

The likelihood of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY Act) passing has exceeded 60%. Optimism is spreading throughout the market, having once soared to 69%. As the Senate enters a critical stage, market participants are focusing on the possibility of legislative progress. Expectations for resolving regulatory uncertainty are growing.

On May 3 (local time), crypto media outlet Coingape explained that this bill is the basis for restoring market confidence. Data from the prediction market platform Polymarket shows a rapid increase in the probability of the bill's passage. Investors view this as a significant breakthrough ending a long-standing stalemate.

Senator Tim Scott, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, stated that the bill has entered the 'red zone' of the legislative process. This means the bill has reached its final stage for Senate passage. Lawmakers are expected to begin the committee amendment voting process in May 2026. Chairman Scott is focusing on securing support from Republican members.

Negotiations are accelerating as disagreements surrounding the stablecoin yield provision have been resolved. Key issues that previously hindered negotiations have been removed. The new regulatory framework complements the shortcomings of the GENIUS stablecoin regulation act. The bill, which passed the House with bipartisan support, now awaits the Senate's final decision.

The passage of the bill also affects the price of XRP. Pro-XRP lawyer Bill Morgan analyzed that the failure to pass the bill would exert downward pressure on the overall cryptocurrency market. This is because the price of XRP moves in conjunction with the overall market trend. When a regulatory framework is established, market confidence increases, serving to support prices.

The establishment of a regulatory framework will be a watershed for ecosystem growth. The approval of the bill is a factor that supports the restoration of market confidence and price increases. Failure to approve could lead to increased volatility and a downward trend in prices. Investors are closely watching Congress's final decision and the market's immediate reaction.

*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*